Saturday, November 27, 2010

Dressler and Lindzen Debate Climate Change Science,

This week on Nuclear Green, there has been some discussion of allegations of criminal wrongdoing against climate scientists Michael Man, following a couple of posts this week. In comments, "Charles H." has alleged that Mann, at the very least, was guilty of bad science, but there would appear to be no law against bad science in the State of Virginia, where Mann is being investigated. Further the research that Virginia authorities are investigating is not the same research in which "Charles H." and others including Steve McIntyre allege the bad science occurred. Steve McIntyre has indicated that although he challenges the validity of Mann's scientific research, he does not believe that Mann is guilty of a crime for which he should be prosecuted.

In the following video, Professors Andrew Dessler of Texas A&M and Richard Lindzen of MIT debate the scientific evidence of anthropogenic global warming, while University of Virginia Law School professors Jonathan Cannon and Jason Johnston discuss the policy implications. The climate science debate is of particular interest to anyone who is following the Nuclear Green discussions of the treatment of Michael Mann, by the Grand Inquisitor of Virginia. Dessler argues that the evidence for the Mann Hockey Stick extends far beyond the evidence which Mann used to support his original case.

Unless you are interested in climate change policy issues, you might want to skip the Cannon-Johnson discussion.

Thursday, November 25, 2010

Good science and scientific error: A comment elevated to a post

I originally intended to post this as a comment on the discussion of "The Persecution of Michael Mann." However, although it is off topic, I feel it is important enough to warrant a post. Professor Ivor Robinson, a notable relativity researcher, told me on several occasions about a paper he had written, which contained a rather large mathematical error. Robinson was embarrassed, but acknowledged the error, which then took on a life of its own. Numerous subsequent papers, made mention of the error. Robinson's reputation was good enough to live down the mistake down, but of all his papers, the paper with the error drew the most citations.

Mistakes, errors and even deliberate data fudging are all part of the stuff of science. Karl Popper was right to place criticism at the heart of the scientific method.

It goes without saying that Michael Mann is capable of making mistakes. The scientific process involves an ongoing investigation of errors in previous science. DOUGLAS ALLCHIN has written a short essay on the scientific errors of Nobel Prize winning scientists. There is no doubt that even outstanding scientists can make huge mistakes. Allchin demonstrates that Nobel winning scientists have committed all sorts of scientific blunders, even in the work for which they were awarded the Nobel Prize.

Even great scientists are not free of error, some of them deliberate. Isaac Newton was a notorious science data fudger.

Thus it is part of normal science to detect error in the work of other scientists, and beyond that to detect deliberate data faking. Detection of errors in the work of scientists does not indicate that they are bad scientists, let alone bad people, only that they are human.

Now undoubtedly Steve McIntyre makes mistakes too, but not according his devotees, who seem to regard his every word as gospel truth. But Tim Lambert accuses McIntyre of distorting the context of quotes. For example Lambert accuses of switching the context of a Mann quote from the 1760's to the 14th century.

At least one web site, Deep Climate, now is now focusing attention on McIntyre's errors. In attempting to understand aspects of the climate debate, we need to realize that the critics of conventional climate science are probably not free of error. It is my impression that McIntyre over interpreted the "Climategate" eMails, and subsequent reviews of the affair have not sustain McIntyre's interpretation.

It is also not to Mcintyre's credit that his Wikipedia biography appears to be little more than a hagiography that sweeps criticisms under the rug.

Wednesday, November 24, 2010

On the Persecution of Michael Mann

The Republican treatment of famed Climate Scientist Michael Mann, goes well beyond rational concern about scientific misconduct, and looks more and more like outright persecution of a scientist who has dared, like Galileo to contradicts the dogmas of the powerful. But Mann, like Galileo is likely to have the last laugh.

The firing of Alvin Weinberg as ORNL Director was a major landmark in the decline of science in the United States. Weinberg was a great scientist, who invented the Light Water Reactor - he patented it - the dominant reactor type of the 20th century. Weinberg was an early advocate of the breeder reactor, but not of the fashionable fast breeder. Rather he championed a highly innovative reactor concept, the molten salt reactor, a reactor which Weinberg probably believed would probably solve all of the problems of nuclear power. Weinberg was concerned about nuclear safety, and got into political trouble, because he pushed for nuclear safety research, at a time when a powerful click in Washington, viewed safety concerns as standing in the way of nuclear progress. There is little doubt, that Washington Power interests, including Congressman Chester E. (Chet) Holifield, AEC Commissioner James Ramsey, and AEC Reactor Research Director Milton Shaw, were behind Weinberg's firing, Weinberg believed that it was important to understand the social and political role of science in the United States during the mid-20th century, and coined the term, big science, but he was blind to the impact of power interests on the course of American science.

In addition to his interest in nuclear power, Weinberg was interested in all sorts of thing including the carbon cycle, and was one of the first American scientists to be alerted to the potential link between CO2 emissions and an anticipated anthropogenic climate change. Here we have one of the great ironies or Weinberg's career, had Alvin Weinberg been a figure in American science a generation later, he might have gotten into political hot water for his stance on Anthropogenic Global Warming, rather than nuclear safety.

Of course, history has plenty of examples of scientists whose research got them in trouble with politicians and religious figures. The most serious example of scientists who crossed the line was, of course, Galileo Galilei, who according to Stephen Hacking,
was responsible for the birth of modern science.
What Galileo did that was so criminal was to invent the telescope, which in turn allowed him to observe for the first time in human history, the moons of Jupiter. The observation of the moons of Jupiter circling the planet offered confirmation of the heliocentric world view, the view that the planets including the earth, circled the sun. This heliocentric view had been percolating through astronomy for a couple of centuries, but Galileo started a scientific revolution with his Dialogue Concerning the Two Chief World Systems. Galileo's book did two things. First it opened up the eyes of European intellectuals to the case for the heliocentric world view, but beyond that it advanced the status of science as a harbinger of a new age.

There was a price to be paid for creating an intellectual revolution. Although the Inquisition had initially given its approval to Galileo's "Dialogue" before its publication, Galileo had committed some political transgressions in the text of his book, that quickly surfaced once it fell into the hands of his enemies. Galileo had committed the sin of arguing that the sun rather than the earth was the center of the universe. For this sin Galileo was tried and imprisoned by that most evil arm of a frequently evil 17th century Catholic Church, the Inquisition. Galileo was tried for and convicted of the appalling crime of heresy, and condemned by the Inquisition to living under house arrest for the rest of his life.

The tradition of the Catholic Church's persecution of Galileo Galilei has been now taken up by some Republicans who are advocating criminal prosecution of climate scientists. Right wing grand Inquisitor, Oklahoma Senator James Inhofe, has demanded an investigation of criminal misconduct by climate scientists without offering a shred of evidence that any crime has actually been committed.
"The world’s leading climate scientists engaged in unethical behavior and possibly violated federal laws,"
Inhofe told a senate committee. Roger Pielke, Jr. commented,
this sort of announcement is what you do when you don't think that the law has in fact been broken. If he had any evidence of law breaking he'd be acting not via announcement. So I think that it is just a bit of clown-like bluffing, serving up red meat for the partisans, but little else.
Now lest you think that Roger Pielke, Jr., is a typical left wing climate science ideologue, you really ought to check out what a real left wing climate science ideologue, Joe Romm, has to say about Piekle, whom Romm classifies as a climate skeptic.

It is now generally assumed by the American political right wing that the notion of Anthropogenic Global Warming is a hoax perpetrated by left wing scientist, and that it serves ideological rather than scientific interests. That august scholar and critique of scientific error, Sarah Palin tells us that President Obama should be
sending a message that the United States will not be a party to fraudulent scientific practices.
This theory does not explain why Edward Teller, long an icon scientist for the American political right, made no qualms about his acceptance of the AGW theory in a speech to the American Chemical Society in 1957. Nor was his 1957 speech the only time Teller focused on AGW. Thirty years later, Teller wrote,
While the magnitude of the climatic impact of greenhouse gases is currently uncertain, the prospect of severe failure of the climate, for instance at the onset of the next Ice Age, is undeniable.
Clearly then Teller was no anthropogenic climate change skeptic. Thus the notion that climate change is a left wing hoax is preposterous. Teller came up with his own solution to climate change, a solution that involved geo-engineering, rather than windmills.

There have been plenty of serious scholarly reports that have exonerated Climate scientist from the charge that their conclusions are the product of of professional misconduct.

In a report that criticized some of Michael Mann's findings, but exonerated him of misconduct charges, The National Research Council acknowledged: “There is sufficient evidence from tree rings, boreholes, retreating glaciers, and other “proxies” of past surface temperatures to say with a high level of confidence that the last few decades of the 20th century were warmer than any comparable period in the last 400 years, . . . The researchers concluded that the warming of the Northern Hemisphere in the last decades of the 20th century was unprecedented in the past thousand years. In particular, they concluded that the 1990s were the warmest decade, and 1998 the warmest year. Their graph depicting a rise in temperatures at the end of a long era became known as the “hockey stick.” The Research Council committee found the Mann team’s conclusion that warming in the last few decades of the 20th century was unprecedented over the last thousand years to be plausible, but it had less confidence that the warming was unprecedented prior to 1600; fewer proxies — in fewer locations — provide temperatures for periods before then. Because of larger uncertainties in temperature reconstructions for decades and individual years, and because not all proxies record temperatures for such short timescales, even less confidence can be placed in the Mann team’s conclusions about the 1990s, and 1998 in particular.

A Penn State committee stated: “The Investigatory Committee, after careful review of all available evidence, determined that there is no substance to the allegation against Dr. Michael E. Mann, Professor, Department of Meteorology, The Pennsylvania State University.
More specifically, the Investigatory Committee determined that Dr. Michael E. Mann did not engage in, nor did he participate in, directly or indirectly, any actions that seriously deviated from accepted practices within the academic community for proposing, conducting, or reporting research, or other scholarly activities.

The decision of the Investigatory Committee was unanimous.

In addition a 2006 report by the National Academy of Science found no scientific misconduct by Mann.

Any attempt to try Dr. Michael Mann, or almost any other climate scientist, would see a parade of witnesses with unquestionable scientific credentials, including Nobel Prize winning scientists, who will state that Dr. Mann has engaged in valid scientific research, and that his findings were not the product of scientific misconduct.

Yet the Republican Virginia Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli, attempted to pillage a University of Virginia warehouse, in hopes of uncovering some evidence that Dr. Mann had done something wrong. What evidence did Mr, Cuccinelli have to justify his belief in Mann’s misconduct? According to Albemarle County Circuit Court Judge Paul M. Peatross Jr., absolutely none. Despite being told by Judge Peatross, that there was no objective grounds for asserting that Dr. Mann had engaged in any misconduct, Cuccinelli has launched yet another witch hunt investigation of Dr. Mann. Cuccinelli is now demanding the right to rummage through all of Dr. Mann's university of Virginia emails for a seven year period when Man was associated with the University of Virginia, as well as his professional working documents. Paradoxically, the research that Cuccinelli wants to investigate has nothing to do with climate change. It has nothing to do with Dr. Mann's famous hockey stick, nor was Dr. Mann the principle investigator. In short, Cuccinelli is looking for any excuse to discredit Mann.

Attorneys for the University of Virginia have responded to Cuccinelli's latest fishing expedition with a counter filing that alleges Cuccinelli's sweeping demands are not based on any specific allegations of wrongful conduct, that they demand access not only to Dr. Mann's paper history, but all documents too and from Dr. Mann by 38 other scientists and scholars, but curiously not, the principal investigator of the research project, or of co-investigators other than Dr. Mann. The UVa lawyers also allege that Cuccinelli's engaged in impermissible infringement on academic freedom.

The American Association for the Advancement of Science viewed the treatment of Dr. Mann as

“a search for some basis on which to discredit these particular scientists and findings, rather than a search for understanding.”
Clearly we need to begin to speak of the persecution of Dr. Mann. The fact that right wing crackpots don’t like Dr. Mann’s conclusions does not mean that he has committed major scientific errors let alone engaged in deliberate misconduct.

Republicans like Inhofe, Palin, and Cuccinelli are not the only American politicians who have engaged in clownish, silly, anti-science behavior. When the National Academy of Sciences found that the Indian point nuclear power plant was of vital importance to the New York state electrical supply and to the state's economy, then State Attorney General and now Govenor elect Andrew Cuomo, pronounced the report "baloney”, proving that his contempt for science and scientists is at least equivalent to Inhofe's and Cuccinelli's.

Cuomo's anti-science, hysterical attempt to paint the Indian Point Reactor as dangerous will ultimately backfire on him. Likewise, the disgraceful Republican attempt to target distinguish scientists like Michael Mann with witch hunting excursions, will eventually cost the Republican party dearly.

We can accurately describe Inhofe's and Cuccinelli's treatment of Dr, Mann as a persecution. But Dr, Mann is likely to have the last laugh on his persecutors. One sure way to establish your name in the history of science is to be targeted, like Galileo, by an anti science progrom. And by linking themselves to the persecution of Mann, Republicans would see attached to their party no small infamy.

Saturday, November 20, 2010

Solar Photovoltaics are not Competitive with Nuclear Power

An Energy from Thorium member, Cyril R, provided me with a link to a new web page that charts the performance of Germany's installed Photovoltaic capacity. This link provides some measures of how well German PV is performing on a real time and daily basis. For example, it is currently 2:28 PM on November 20, 2010. Germany's 15.17 GWs of installed PV capacity is currently producing 1.8 GWs of electricity, already well past its peak output for today. 1.8 GWs of electrical output, is 12% of installed capacity, and that already represents a substantial drop from the system maximum noon time power output. Another graft on the same web page indicates that no power was generated before 7:30 AM German time this morning, and power output will be back to zero by 4:15 PM this afternoon. Thus electrical output German PV is anticipated for less than 1/3rd of today. During the time it has so far taken me to write this paragraph, German PV output has dropped over 10% more, to 1.6 GW.

According to a story in the New York Times, Germany expects to spend
120 billion euros ($184 billion) in public support (for Solare PV generating facilities) by 2015.
Yet there is only enough sunshine in Germany to generate electricity for 1528 hours a year or less than 20% of the time.

I should pause her to tell you that it is now 2:55 PM in Germany and electrical generation from Solar PV sources has dropped to 1.3 GWs. In an hour and 20 minutes that figure will be down to zero. Is Germany's enormous investment in Solar PV a worthwhile alternative to nuclear power? Of course not. We are talking about an impossible fantasy.


Thursday, November 18, 2010

More on the IThEMS Business Plan from Dr. Kazuo Furukawa

IThEMS represents the first serious attempt to found a business intended to produce Molten Salt Reactors. Dr. Kazuo Furukawa, the designer of the FUJI and Mini-FUJI reactors, has made the realistic decision to use Oak Ridge National Laboratory proven technology, in his initial reactor designs. Although many observers believe that it would take a generation or more to develop mature Molten Salt Reactor, in fact theORNL Molten Salt Reactor Experiment demonstrated that a working MSR was possible with no further R&D investment. The simplicity of the MSR makes quick development and commercialization possible. Thus the IThEMS estimate that it could put a small commercial reactor within 6 years in not unrealistic.

Dr. Kazuo Furukawa is back in Japan, and has sent me a number of interesting documents, The most interesting of which is titled IThEMS Outlook. This document included information on a number of interesting topics including a Memorandum of Understanding between International Thorium Energy & Molten-Salt Technology Inc. (IThEMS), and a number of parties from the Czech Republic who have a prior interest in the development of molten salt nuclear technology.

IThEMS expects further technology development in such areas as:
1 Fuel-Salt loop technology including necessary component tests,
2 Coolant-salt loop technology including necessary component tests,
3 Structural material development and some main components fabrication,
4 Main components design, fabrication and tests,
5 Other relating items technology development.
At last report, IThEMS was also looking for an American business partner, but no possible American partner is mentioned in the IThEMS Outlook report. IThEMS Outlook does report the Mini FUJI business plan.

The plan calls for a Mini-FUJI Reactor R&D investment of $300 million over a 6 year period of time, with sales beginning in the 5th year. By the 7th year sales are anticipated to reach the level of 50 units a year, and that is expected to reach 200 unites a year by the 10th year. Mini-FUJI reactors are expected to produce 10 MWe and sell for $60 million. The initial manufacturing cost is anticipated to be approximately $40 million, and that figure is expected to drop to $30 million as production rises. Sales are anticipated to reach $12 Billion by the 10th year, with an assumed gross profit from sales of 30%. Thus the potential after tax income of IThEMS would run to $2.5 billion. And this would be before IThEMS brings its major product, the 200 MWe FUJI reactor to the market.

Power from the Mini-FUJI is expected to cost $0.061 per kWh to produce, with an anticipated retail cost of $0.11 per kWh in the United States, and $0.22 per kWh in Japan. It should be noted that the mini-FUJI is a micro scale nuclear generation unit that is not intended to produce base load electricity for the grid. The FUJI is intended to produce base load electricity, and can be expected to sell for considerably less per kWh than the Mini-FUJI, yet it still could make a very large profit. Projecting sales figures out another decade, IThEMS could have $200 billion a year in sales, and profits as high as $60 billion, making it, if everything goes according to plan, the largest energy business in the world.

Not I am not claiming that IThEMS will end up as a $200 billion a year business, only that it could if everything goes according to plan. Things, of course, seldom proceed as planned, without some hitches, but IThEMS does have prospects.

Wednesday, November 17, 2010

The Sussex Affair: The Conspiracy to Hide Renewables Cost?

The Sussex Affair refers to a Canadian document leaked to the media a few weeks ago by some Canadian Conservative Party politicians, The document purports to be to be a strategic plan to support Renewable Feed in Tariffs in Ontario. The document states,
• A number of renewable energy developers have come together to form a lose coalition of interests, to promote renewable energy policy in Ontario and support the agenda set as part of the Green Energy and Economy Act and the Feed‐in‐Tariff program.
• This coalition will be joined by other groups, such as Environmental Defence and the GEA Alliance, as well as labour, economic development, health and environmental stakeholders, to develop common messaging, communications tools (ie. paid and earned media) and targeted local campaigns in areas where opposition to renewable power exists.
• The goal of this effort will be two‐fold:
1. Help support an expedited release of FIT contracts, including those associated with new Bruce‐Milton transmission capacity; and
2. Support the broader government plan for sustained contracting for wind and solar through the FIT Program, as part of the Supply Mix Directive and Long‐Term Energy Plan.
• As renewable energy is also anticipated to be a wedge issue in the election, with the PCs supporting a move away from renewables, this effort should consolidate industry and non‐industry stakeholders in rallying support for a continued focus on green power as important economic, social, and energy policy in Ontario.
The next goal, the one which has created something of a sensation in Canada, states,
• In this, it will be critical to “confuse” the issue in the political/public/media away from just price to include key value attributes such as jobs, clean air, farm income, etc. Renewables cannot be defined by price alone.
The document is marked,
PRIVILEGED AND CONFIDENTIAL
So is this a working document of a deliberate conspiracy to confuse the public about renewable energy costs, or is it a right-wing hoax?

The Document was presented to the public last week by Ontario Conservative Party Opposition Leader Tim Hudak, who stated,
This deck contains evidence of an active push to form a special interest coalition intent on defending the McGuinty government’s costly energy experiments, including massive handouts to industry.
According to The Star story, the Sussex Group has
confirmed it pitched the proposal to a “broad group” — not just its clients — that included people involved in health and the environment to expand the debate about green energy. But it wouldn’t name names.
Sussex spokesperson, Brett James, acknowledged,
I think it was a poor choice of words, because the effort is actually to provide clarity to the debate that right now is only about price, and to make sure that the benefits of clean energy are reflected in the debate as well.
According to The Star story,
Sussex, which has offices in Toronto and Ottawa, has seven active lobbyists on the Ontario registry. Its client list includes the Electricity Distributors Association of Ontario and several renewable energy companies, such as FarmTech Energy, Recurrent Energy and Interwind Corp.
The Sussex document does appear to pull back the curtain on the weeding of "Green" ideological interests, and a seemingly unethical cabal of Renewable manufacturers, and investor rent seekers, who are using the "Greens" to promote subsidy and FIT driven profits at the expense of tax payers and rate payers, not just in Canada, but also in Europe and the United States. The document reveals plans for a well financed campaign intended to garner "Green" support for a FIT conspiracy, and channel that support into votes for the Ontario Liberal Party, which appears to be committed to raising ratepayers costs, in order to pay for local Feed in Tariffs.

The Sussex document is all about PR spin and lobbying, not about energy solutions. It probably reflects similar manipulative PR/lobbying campaigns in the United States. The watchword of the Greens is to
Confuse the public about renewable and nuclear energy costs.
Although the Sussex document does not mention nuclear power, the Sussex clients have no interest in public awareness of the relative cost of nuclear and renewable energy. While renewable advocates such as Amory Lovins, Mark Cooper, Joe Romm, and David Roberts, repeatedly tell the public that nuclear power costs too much, they always avoid offering a realistic comparison of nuclear and renewables costs. The question has to be if Lovins, Cooper, Romm, Roberts and others are being paid to confuse the public about nuclear costs. I don't know, but the reading the Sussex document certainly raises the possibility.

Greens are willingly duped by the pro-renewable spin, and are not inclined to ferrite out the real cost relationship between nuclear power and renewable generated electricity. Green voters believe that they are being virtuous because they are willing to play high prices for renewable generated electricity. Actually they are being nothing more than dupes of renewable business interests.

The last canard is the notion that support for renewable rent seeking, is somehow a Liberal/Left Wing cause. Renewable rent seeking is nothing more than a conspiracy to cheat the public through renewable tax subsidies, and Feed in Tariffs. There is nothing liberal about cheating the public to fill the coffers of rent seeking capitalists. There is nothing left-wing about spreading confusion about renewable and nuclear energy costs. The Sussex document suggested that renewables advocates should
Inventory potential economic/investment/jobs benefits. In other words, if we have 1000MW of new wind/solar contracts coming out, XX manufacturing facilities will be built,, employing XX direct and indirect jobs, with XX person years involved in the generation projects themselves.
Such benefit claims are likely to be full of baloney. In 2009 a west Texas Wind project was projected to receive $450 million in Federal stimulus money in addition to hundreds of millions more in Federal and State tax monies. Project investors lived in China, and the wind turbines were to be built in a Chinese factory, so money appropriated to help American workers and businesses, was actually going to create Chinese jobs and provide income for Chinese investors. Needless to say the pro-renewable, anti-nuclear spin merchants, Lovins, Cooper, Romm, and Roberts, do not tell that part of the story.

Friday, November 12, 2010

The Cost Benefit of Molten Salt Nuclear Technology

Charles Forsberg was not alone in his views. In fact the concept of a salt cooled high temperature reactor had three fathers.
The AHTR, which could also be used to produce electricity, was conceived in 2001 by Forsberg, Paul S. Pickard of DOE's Sandia National Laboratories, and Per Peterson of the University of California at Berkeley. The AHTR is based on three technological feats: a molten-salt coolant developed at ORNL for the nuclear aircraft propulsion program of the 1950s and the molten salt breeder reactor program of the 1960s; fuel elements made of coated nuclear fuel particles embedded in a graphite matrix, developed in the 1970s at ORNL for the gas-cooled reactor program; and passive safety systems devised by industry for gas-cooled and liquid-metal reactors.
Packard was subsequently to not play a major role in the development of the AHTR concept, but Per Peterson, who is now a member of Energy Secretary Chu's Blue Ribbon Commission, worked out an analysis which showed that the Graphite embedded fuel, molten salt cooled reactor concept had a very significant potential to lower nuclear costs.

Per Peterson argues that Molten salt cooled reactors are more compact than traditional nuclear technology. Peterson argued that reactor costs are related to the total building volume which the reactor occupies. One GW Light Water reactors of the 1970's typically occupied 336 m(3) per MWe of rated generation capacity while Generation III+ reactors typically occupy from 422 to 486 M(3) per MWe of rated capacity. Larger building volume suggests higher costs, because they require more materials and more labor to build. However not all advanced reactors would save money on building costs. Peterson reported that the Pebble Bed Modular reactor occupies 1285 M(3) per MWe of rated capacity. This finding suggests that the PBMR is not cost competitive with traditional Light Water Reactors. Yet by turning the PBMR into a Molten Salt cooled reactor, Peterson calculated, its construction cost could be dramatically lowered.

Peterson worked to develop a hybrid Molten Salt cooled Pebble Bed Reactor. Pebble Bed Modular Reactors use Helium as a coolant. The heat removal capacity of helium is much smaller than the heat removal capacity of molten salts. Thus by switching coolants, reactor designers could decrease the reactor coolant volume. Decreased coolant volume means a smaller core and smaller heat exchanges. This in turn dramatically decreases reactor system housing volume. Peterson estimates that the building volume for a 410 MWe hybrid Pebble Bed-Molten salt cooled reactor (the PB-AHTR would be 260 M(3) per MWe of rated generating capacity.

Peterson's estimate is unprecedented and contradicts normal assumptions about nuclear power economies of scale. The usual assumption about economies of scale

Molten Salt Reactor researchers have consistently found that MS cooled and fueled reactors costs were equal to or less than the cost of Light Water Reactors. For example, ORNL researchers who were attempting to estimate the capitol cost of a Molten Salt Breeder Reactor design in 1972, attempted to compare the cost of the MSBR with the cost of a typical Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR) of the time wrote in ORNL 4541 (1972),
The capitalization costs for the two reactor types are not greatly different. In a broad sense this can be explained by the fact that only about one-third of the total cost is for reactor equipment, the remainder being for the heat-power system, general facilities, and indirect costs, which are expenses that are somewhat similar for all thermal power plants. Variations in reactor equipment costs are not of sufficient magnitude to cause striking differences in the overall capital requirement because there are rough similarities in costs of vessels, shielding, etc., and many of the differences that do exist are offsetting,
The cost competitiveness of the MSBR is remarkable for several reasons:
First the MSBR had superior performance features.
One of the distinguishing features of the MSBR station is the use of initial steam conditions of IO00°F and 3500 psia, with reheat to IO00°F. As shown in account '_.31,Table 15.1, a turbine-generator for these conditions has a relatively low first cost compared of the turbine-generator for a PWR. Good utilization of the available heat in the MSBR is reflected in the relatively low steam mass flow rates and amount of heat transfer surface needed. Although no credit was taken for it in the MSBR cost estimate, this factor could also, influence siting and environmental control costs in that the heat rejected to the MSBR condensing water is only about one-half that for the PWR.
Secondly, the MSBR required several safety and maintenance features not required by the PWR.
The alternate reactor vessel head assembly used to facilitate replacement of the core graphite in the MSBR is included in the first cost of the plant. The estimate also includes the special maintenance equipment used for the replacement operation. The MSBR does not consider a safeguards cooling system (account 223, Table 15.1) as such but does require a drain tank with afterheat-removal capability, as included in account 225, Table D. 1.
It should be pointed out that ORNL researchers had failed to capture the effects of inflation on LWR costs. During the decade of the 1970's PWR costs rose significantly faster than over all inflation. Some of those cost increases were due to over all inflationary pressure operating on the U
nited States economy, while other components of the inflation were due to the effects of regulation on nuclear costs improvements in reactor design also contributed to the increase in the cost of reactors, and eventually older nuclear plants were modified to reflect improved safety technology and other features, developed by the nuclear manufacturing industry. In many instances those changes and at least some of the other inflationary pressures operating on nuclear costs, would not have fallen equally on the MSBR.

It should also be noted that the MSBR was a very new technology then. MSBR designers in 1972 were unaware of issues related to nuclear costs, that are matters of concern in 2010. Reactor designers seeking to take advantage of Molten salt coolant/fuel carrier technology are much more concerned about lowering and/or controlling nuclear cost than Oak Ridge reactor designers were in 1972.

ORNL researchers had attempted to update MSR cost estimates in 1975, and that updating process continued to about 1980. However ORNL Molten Salt Technology cost estimates after 1972 were largely based on the 1972 ORNL-4541 study. The weakness of the MSBR/PWR comparisons were ignored, and the estimated cost of PWRs became unrealistically low with the passage of time. Thus I found that the ORNL staff had estimated the cost of PWRs to be $597 million in 1978, the cost was in fact probably closer to $1.5 billion.

In 2002, LLNL physicist Ralph Moir attempted to compare the cost of the cost of electricity from coal, conventional nuclear power and potential Molten Salt Reactors. Moir found,
We conclude that the cost of electricity generated by an MSR is competitive with other sources based on the old but comprehensive evaluations. Using the same methodology, the COE is 7% lower than that for water reactors and 9% lower than that for coal plants. The information in this note based on the three options as defined in 1978 does not include current safety, licensing, and environmental standards which will impact costs, as will CO2 sequestering and
increased HAP (Hazardous Air Pollutants) for coal. The low cost of electricity along with the MSR’s many other potential advantages suggests that stopping the development of the MSR might have been a mistake and that restarting the program should be considered. These advantages include: the ability to burn thorium, the ability to burn most of its own actinide wastes (and some wastes from other plants), the ability to continuously add fuel and remove fission products, and the ability to provide an alternative to the plutonium cycle with its association with nuclear weapons. The fuel cycle is near to being closed, and fuel is burned with high conversion efficiency (near breeder). Again, it is emphasized that the MSR is a conceptual design several decades old. A new evaluation of MSR is strongly recommended based on current safety, licensing and environmental standards and comparisons made to alternative power plants.
Moir's calculations, if anything, fell short of the cost savings potential of molten salt nuclear technology.
Dr. Furukawa's company, "International Thorium Energy & Molten-Salt Technology Inc." (IThEMS) has estimated the cost of the FUJI to be 30% less than the cost of conventional water cooled reactors. It should be noted that Dr. Furukawa's estimate is, if anything quite conservative. The 30% lower cost estimate, is entirely based on added efficiency, and does not take into account the cost savings derived from smaller coolant volume, the cost saving potential of small reactor factory production, interest savings contingent on shorter manufacturing time, and lower borrowing costs, related to diminished risks entailed in financing modest size nuclear projects. In short, Dr. Furukawa's FUJI reactor project, as well as Per Peterson's PB-AHTR are likely to create per storms of nuclear cost savings. Since most of the technology for both projects is already in the can, molten salt nuclear technology already potentially offers very large cost savings, rapid deployment, and a very significant shift away from carbon emitting fossil fuel technology, to a sustainable post carbon, nuclear based economy.

Thursday, November 11, 2010

Charles Forsberg's views on Generation IV nuclear costs

ORNL MSR development work focused almost exclusively on MSBRs, although Ed Bettis's reactor design shop did design some deep burn MSR converters. The AEC was interested in breeder reactors, so the ORNL focus was on the development of a MSBR, rather than on possibly simpler converters. During the 1960's the cost of Light Water Reactors (LWRs) was believed to be low. Indeed by the time the dramatic reactor cost inflation of the 1970's had taken place, the MSR was no longer in the picture, and thus its potential for competing with the LWR on costs never became a topic for discussion. ORNL designers during the early 1970's had concluded that the cost of the MSBR was competitive with the cost of LWRs, but no attempt had been made to compare the cost of a MSR converter, to LWR costs.
In retrospective the failure to view the MSR as a potential replacement to the LWR, was an unfortunate product of faulty assumptions based on incomplete information. The incomplete information pertained to Light Water Reactor costs, and the faulty assumptions had to do with the desirability of the LWR as a competitor of coal fired power plants. As it turned out the LWR was by the early 1980's at a definite cost disadvantage compared to coal fired power plants, and was widely seen by the public as suffering from disadvantages with respect to the environment, and human health and safety. In retrospective the health and safety issues appear to have been largely solved by 1980. The Three Mile Island accident showed that even a major reactor accident would produce no casualties or environmental costs. Thus Three Mile Island demonstrated that the health, safety and environmental protection approaches philosophy adopted by American reactor manufacturers was sound. However, the technology protecting health, safety and the environmental came at a considerable monetary cost, a cost which was to cripple prospects for further growth of the nuclear industry for over a generation.

In the meantime Molten Salt Reactor technology languished, although a small group of ORNL staff members and a similarly small group of MSR international fans sought to revive interest in Molten Salt Nuclear technology.

It was only after the beginning of the 21st century that the use of Molten Salt coolants began to be seen as a low cost alternative Generation IV approach to nuclear power. This view emerged from Charles Forsberg one of the ORNL MSR old hands. Forsberg's view appears to have been that breeder technology was an encumbrance on Molten Salt development, and that a marriage of technology used for gas cooled reactors and molten salt based coolants had many attractive features. While the development of Molten Salt Reactor technology had largely stood still for a generation, the development of gas cooled reactors had advanced, and that technology was ready for implementation. Yet Gas cooled reactors suffered from a technical flaw, that would lead to high costs. Gasses are relatively unsatisfactory reactor coolants, especially when compared to liquid coolants like water, sodium, of molten salts. As a consequence, a lot of gas is required to cool a reactor core, and consequently the core must be large. This means a lot of material will go into gas cooled reactor construction compared to reactor power output. Liquid salts used in the Molten Salt Reactor are excellent coolants. What Forsberg noticed that aside from the size differences, there were a lot of structural similarities between Molten Salt Reactors and Gas Cooled Reactors. Both reactor types featured a coolant flowing through a graphite nuclear core. The graphite provided both core structure and neutron moderation.

The largest difference between the Gas Cooled Reactor and the Molten Salt Reactor was
the placement of the nuclear fuel. In the gas cooled reactor the fuel was embedded in the graphite, while in the MSR, the fuel (U-233, U-235. or Pu-239) was mixed with the molten salt coolant. The classic MSR was useful for a nuclear economy that assumed a limited or expensive uranium supply. Uranium and possibly thorium mixed with the MSR carrier salts, could be easily processed along with their nuclear byproducts. Processing uranium or thorium embedded in core graphite, while not impossible, was potentially more complicated. Forsberg's view only made since if nuclear breeding would be unnecessary for the next century or so. As it turned out this is Forsberg's view. Thus Forsberg concluded that it was not only possible to build a hybrid reactor using already mature Molten Salt and graphite embedded fuel technologies. Not only was it possible, but the resulting reactor, the Advanced High Temperature Reactor (AHTR) was very attractive. Forsberg did not directly compare the AHTR to the LWR but he did offer comparisons between the AHTR and other Generation IV reactor types. Forsberg compared variants of the AHTR with two other Generation IV reactor designs, an IFR, the General Electric sodium-cooled S-PRISM, and the gas cooled General Atomic Modular High-Temperature Reactor (GT-MHR). Forsberg argued that the AHTR would cost between 55% and 49% of the cost of the S-PRISM, and 61% and 53% of the GT-MHR.

Foorsberg noted that several factors would would contribute to the lower AHtR cost:
• Higher efficiency. The higher temperature implies higher efficiency (~50% vs 42%). This results in lower costs per kilowatt (electric) because of the smaller power conversion equipment, cooling systems to reject heat from the power cycle, and smaller decay-heat-removal systems.
• Passive decay heat removal. The higher AHTR temperatures, combined with the high-temperature fuel, enable the development of passive safety systems for large reactors. Passive safety systems have the potential for lower costs.
• Reduced containment requirements. The molten salt coolant avoids the potential for steam−sodium interactions, absorbs radionuclides that escape the fuel, and eliminates highly energetic accidents, all of which lower containment requirements.
• Reduced equipment sizes. Volumetric heat capacities for molten salts are several times larger than those for sodium. This reduces the size of pipes, valves, and heat exchangers per unit of energy transferred.
• Transparent coolant. Unlike liquid metals, molten salts are transparent. This simplifies maintenance and inspection of the primary system with significant cost advantages.
it should be noted that Forsberg's thinking did not extend to the potential cost savings advantages of small modular reactors. But Per Peterson was shortly to refine Forsberg's analysis in a number of respects, and his findings. in my next post I intend to review Peterson's analysis.

It should be noted, however, that Forsberg's cost estimates are far too low. Thus it is not the cost estimate but the relationship between reactor costs for different nuclear technologies. It should be noted that TVA rebuilt its Browns Ferry unit 1 reactor between 2002 and 2007 at a cost of $1.9 billion, $1720 per kW, that is higher than Forsberg's estimate of new Generation IV reactor costs. Despite these difficulties, it would appear that Forsberg's hybrid reactor offered a promising rout to lower nuclear power costs.

Thursday, November 4, 2010

The Aqueous Homogeneous Reactor

At the dawning of the nuclear era there were a number of different ideas about how to build nuclear reactors. The earliest attempt was maid at the Cavendish Laboratory in England. Two French Scientists, Hans Von Halban and Lew Kowarski, both of whom were Jewish and recent refugees from Nazi occupied France designed and built the first nuclear reactor experiment. Von Halban and Kowarski had brought with them from Paris two things. The first was the knowledge they had acquired working with Frédéric Joliot-Curie, Madam Marie Curie's son-in-law, who was a Nobel Prize winning physicist, and the leading French nuclear researcher during the 1930's. The second thing Von Halban and Kowarski had brought from Paris to the United Kingdom was a rare supply of a substance known as heavy water, 40 gallons of it loaned by Norway to France, and entrusted by Joliot-Curie to the British for safe keeping from the Nazis.

In the fall of 1940 Von Halban and Kowarski set out to rework a earlier failed experiment. in 1939, they had attempted to initiate a chain reaction in a sphere of water which contained U3O8 mixed with ordinary water, that is a form of uranium mud called a slurry. The experiment had failed, but Von Halban and Kowarski knew that if the water were replaced with heavy water, they could produce neutrons from U-235 fission, if not an outright chain reaction. in order to produce a full chain reaction, Von Halban and Kowarski needed 25 times more uranium than they used. Later it emerged that the Von Halban and Kowarski heavy water and Uranium slurry experiment had produced more neutrons that expected by theory. The question then arose whether theory of the Von Halban and Kowarski observations were correct.

That question was explored by Enrico Fermi, who along with Harold Urey was interested in the discrepancy between the the Neutron multiplication data obtained by Von Halban andKowarski in their Cavendish Laboratory experiment, and the results predicted by theory. James Lane noted
If the results of Halban and Kowarski were correct, then a homogeneous system containing a few tons of heavy water would be chain reacting . On the other hand, if the theoretical estimates were correct, the order of 100 tons of D2O would be required. Urey and Fermi recommended [5] that the earlier U3O8-D2O experiments be repeated with the improved techniques then known, and that consideration be given to incorporating a mixture of uranium and heavy water into the pile at Chicago to determine its effect on the pile reactivity .
Problems with the uranium slurry lead Manhattan Project scientists to consider uranyl nitrate dissolved in heavy water. By 1943 active research on homogeneous reactors was underway at Columbia university, "the Metallurgical Laboratory" at the University of Chicago, and in LosAlamos. In addition to Fermi and Urey, Eugene Wigner was interested. The availability of enriched uranium from Oak Ridge, made possible the design and construction of a small, low powered homogeneous reactor at Los Alamos. The reactor used UO25O4 dissolved in heavy water as fuel. The "LOPO" reactor was built and proved successful. By the end of the year, a more powerful "HYPO" reactor followed, and began to offer Los Alamos scientist a new research tool. Enrico Fermi was involved in the World War II development of homogeneous reactors at Los Alamos, but he saw them as research tools rather than practical energy sources.

Other Manhattan Project researchers saw more promise in the aqueous homogeneous reactor (AHR). The ORNL 50 year Laboratory history observed,
It pained chemists to see precisely fabricated solid-fuel elements of heterogeneous reactors eventually dissolved in acids to remove fission products--the "ashes" of a nuclear reaction. Chemical engineers hoped to design liquid-fuel reactors that would dispense with the costly destruction and processing of solid fuel elements. The formation of gas bubbles in liquid fuels and the corrosive attack on materials, however, presented daunting design and materials challenges.
What is often forgotten is that the great physicist Eugene Wigner, was by training a chemical engineer. the ORNL 50 year history continued,
A homogeneous (liquid-fuel) reactor had two major advantages over heterogeneous (solid-fuel and liquid-coolant) reactors. Its fuel solution would circulate continuously between the reactor core and a processing plant that would remove unwanted fissionable products. Thus, unlike a solid-fuel reactor, a homogeneous reactor would not have to be taken off-line periodically to discard spent fuel.
Equally important, a homogeneous reactor's fuel and the solution in which it was dissolved served as the source of power generation. For this reason, a homogeneous reactor held the promise of simplifying nuclear reactor designs.
Eugene Wigner believed that the aqueous homogeneous reactor had practical potential. He proposed that it be used as an energy source for nuclear powered aircraft. Other proposals were more promising and the idea was quickly dropped, but Wigner's protegee, Alvin Weinberg as research director and later Laboratory Director at ORNL, was interested in the homogeneous reactor as a thorium breeder and an electrical generation source. Thus ORNLbegan a serious development program for a thorium breeding homogeneous reactor program that ORNL pursued during the 1950s.

Ed Bettis, an Oak Ridge engineer was employed at the Oak Ridge uranium separation plant, K-25. K-25 had its own nuclear powered aircraft program , and Bettis, assigned to it, was dissatisfied with the reactor design he had been assigned to work on. instead, Bettis and his associates developed a daring and radical approach to reactor design, a homogeneous reactor that used fluoride salts as a coolant. Eventually, ORNL began its own aircraft reactor project, using some of the people and ideas left over from the K-25 project. Ed Bettis was one of the people, and his Molten Salt Reactor was one of the ideas. The Molten Salt Reactor concept appealed to ORNL's scientific leadership, and it want on to be developed as a potential air craft reactor during the early to mid 1950's.

Thus Oak Ridge National Laboratory had during the 1950's two separate fluid fueled reactor development programs. Eventually at the end of the decade one, the aqueous homogeneous reactor was to fall by the wayside. While the Homogeneous reactor was promising. its development was faced by more obstacles, and its promises were not nearly as impressive as those of the Molten Salt Reactor. In 1959 the US AEC concluded that research on fluid fuel reactors and proceeded far enough that it was possible to evaluate the possible outcomes of further research focusing on the technologies. The AEC commissioned a task force of 15 engineers and scientists, to evaluate three fluid fueled reactor concepts, including the two concepts from Oak Ridge. The third concept was a liquid metal fuel concept which was somewhat handicapped by the fact that no prototype Liquid Metal fuel reactor had been built, and thus assertions about it were less certain.

It soon became apparent to the task force, that the aqueous homogeneous reactor had several disadvantages, especially when compared to the Molten Salt Reactor.
The aqueous homogeneous system requires more equipment, due to the necessity of having three reactor systems to achieve the same power production as one reactor in the other two systems, It also has the necessity of doing more frequent reprocessing of the fuel, with associated on-plant reprocessing facilities. . . .

In conclusion, based on today's knowledge and the experience of EIBE-2, a properly designed aqueous homogeneous system can be maintained by the use of wet maintenance, although at high cost and considerable down time,
The maintenance picture for the Molten Salt Reactor was less certain. The AHR also had some significant safety hazards,
The AHR is potentially the most hazardous of the three fluid fuel concepts. The primary reason for this is that it is a high pressure system. Additional contributing factors are the radiolytic gas explosion hazard, and the fact that its fuel stability is probably the most precarious of the three concepts.
Research on the AHR had demonstrated some problems with operational stability, a tendency of core power output to oscillate. The task force observed,
Of the three concepts, the AHR is probably the most susceptible to nuclear instability. This is a consequence of its large negative temperature coefficient which, due to circulation effects, has a delayed component which may be a contributing factor to instability, Also, hydrodynamic fluctuations are most likely in the AHRbecause the flow pattern encompasses the entire core.
Thus it became clear to the fluid fuel reactor task force, that although more experienced had been gained from AHR prototype development than for the other systems, that the AHR would be the most challenging to develop.
Disadvantages of these reactors are also related to the characteristics of water and the fuel compounds. Fuels which are now in use have major faults. The uranylsulphate solution fuel is corrosive and its stability decreases with increasing temperature. The thoria fuel is erosive, and settles unless it is agitated continuously; no methods are presently envisioned which show promise of separating bred uranium from the thorium without dissolving the thoria particles. Corrosion of materials in the reactor core is increased by radiation. Special precautionary measures must be taken in the design and operation of the reactors to prevent the moderator decomposition products, D2 and O2, from introducing a serious explosion hazard. Aqueous systems operate at relatively low temperature so the thermodynamic efficiency of the power cycle is low. The vapor pressure of the water is high at the operating temperature of the reactor so the radio- activity is more difficult to contain. Care must be taken to prevent the expensive heavy water from being contaminated by light water.
The task force concluded that although less was known about the Molten Salt Reactor, it appeared more promising. than the other two concepts, and thus shortly after the AEC issued the task force report, ORNL shut down is AHR research, less than 20 years after Von Halban and Kowarski Cavendish Laboratory experiment. In those 20 years a new world had commenced to emerge, a world which many people were to feel uncomfortable with, but one which unlike the AHR could not be made to disappear.
While the ORNL AHR research project had fallen short of expectation, it had conceptually laid the groundwork for a more advanced and more promising fluid fuel reactor system, the Molten Salt Reactor.

Tuesday, November 2, 2010

John Large, Greenpeace Hired Gun

A question has arrisen about John Large. who was cast as a foil to Kirk Sorensen, on a Russia Today video yesterday. Large claimed that
the thorium reactors do not really work, . . They are very challenging. It is a whole new fuel technology which has considerable and very insurmountable problems, in my opinion.
Large, who is a consulting nuclear engineer with Large and Associates, stated,
They would have problems in developing the processing cycle, the way in which you split the fuel from the waste from the reactor. They would have difficulties in actually storing the fuel.
Large also stated that Thorium reactors failed during the 1950's and disappeared from view only to reemerge about 2010.

Our first question is who is John Large? The answer is that John Large is a consulting nuclear engineer who appears to have acted on a number of occasions as a hired gun expert for Greenpeace. (For example, see here, here, and here.) Some expert hired guns are genuine experts who stick to facts and logic, while others employ logical fallacies, and misrepresentations of fact, to further the cases that they are attempting to make. Facts and logic, are not generally speaking Greenpeace strong points, and thus Mr. Large's statements cannot be automatically credited with adhering to the highest professional standards.

As far as I have been able to determine, the Russia today interview, represented John Large's first statement on the use of thorium as a nuclear fuel, and about thorium breeding nuclear technology. Since Large does not offer evidence to back up any of his statements, and in fact has made any public statements orally or in writing, about thorium or thorium breeding technology, it is impossible to know why he makes the claims he makes. Further more a number of the statements he made in the RT interview, were contrary to known facts. For example there were, contrary to Large, thorium based reactors operated after the 1950's. At least some thorium based reactors were not by any means failures. Finally, ORNL gave a great deal of attention to thorium fuel reprocessing in the 1960's and 70's. And while hey did find some difficulties, the difficulties were not overwhelming, and ORNL researchers made steady progress toward solving them. In the absence of greater specificity, we must conclude that a number of Large's claims were based on inaccurate information. of course, Large may offer us the information that he has so far withheld in support of his questionable statements.

Once again we note the hazard to media credibility that comes from automatically attributing expert status to the hired guns of partisan causes.

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