tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7597656451205429515.post264425531580211850..comments2024-02-16T17:52:44.944-06:00Comments on The Nuclear Green Revolution: The Renewable Plan A and the Nuclear Plan BCharles Bartonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01125297013064527425noreply@blogger.comBlogger45125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7597656451205429515.post-54740005460416867772010-01-01T02:38:25.007-06:002010-01-01T02:38:25.007-06:00"We already have responsive loads." - An..."We already have responsive loads." - Anon<br /><br />These belong to either of two categories, they're either _tiny_ or will not shift by more than an hour or two.<br /><br />"refrigerator"<br /><br />The refrigerator/freezer is a few hundred watts at most when the compressor is running and you can't shift it for more than an hour or two without either mandating significant phase-change thermal storage or wasting electricity(the freezer is most efficient at the highest temperature that is acceptable for food storage; if you run the temperature down in order to store a little bit more energy you introduce waste)<br /><br />"AC"<br /><br />You can't touch people's thermostat without pissing them off. You either have to retrofit a large "thermal mass" into the walls of people's homes or you can only shift by tens of minutes to an hour.<br /><br />"Do you care really care if your water heater turns on at 4 o'clock vs. 5 o'clock? Do you think the average customer would?"<br /><br />Do you really think the wind or solar farm operator cares if my water heater turns on at 4 o'clock vs. 5 o'clock?<br /><br />Nah, of course not. For it to provide even a noticable benefit to renewables producers you need to start dictating at what time of day people may shower(...there's always cold showers), you need to fiddle with the thermostat setting, you need to determine when people can run their dishwasher, washing machine, clothes dryer, stove and oven.<br /><br />Even with all this you're going to need embarassing amounts of natural gas or energy storage.Markus Gålfalknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7597656451205429515.post-62022080691240452202009-12-31T14:26:13.045-06:002009-12-31T14:26:13.045-06:00"I don't think we know how much potential...<i>"I don't think we know how much potential DR has yet. We can only guess. You think there's very little potential. I think there's a ton. Jury is out."</i><br /><br />The whole point I am making is that the many customers in California that are in open revolt with regard to their smart meters are the jury, and they are rendering judgment. And I'm telling you that almost 40 years of experience in high power use industries that not as much room as supporters of these schemes contend. When it comes down to cases all types of consumers are going to place a higher value on their inconvenience that is assumed by those backing this idea, and very little market research has been done that factors this in.<br /><br />Ultimately though, the degree of dynamic response needed to integrate more than just a token amount of renewable energy will be far more than will or can be tolerated by the users, and that is where these plans fail. Knowing this, utilities are going to have to turn to gas to provide the missing energy and any gains in terms of GHG mitigation will be lost, or minimized to the point of being trivial. Only nuclear energy meets the requirements of being both clean and dispatchable, and that is why it is the only rational choice.DV8 2XLhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14595060432772287143noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7597656451205429515.post-37595386110423505642009-12-31T12:09:58.407-06:002009-12-31T12:09:58.407-06:00Use the translate function on google.Use the translate function on google.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7597656451205429515.post-46364619713094748092009-12-31T12:08:12.292-06:002009-12-31T12:08:12.292-06:00Anonymous, I believe you enquired about hacking th...Anonymous, I believe you enquired about hacking the smart grid:<br />http://www.internetnews.com/infra/article.php/3831956/Black+Hat+Exposes+Smart+Grid+Security+Risks.htmCharles Bartonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01125297013064527425noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7597656451205429515.post-56075519320265736392009-12-31T12:01:51.757-06:002009-12-31T12:01:51.757-06:00Anonymous, you linked me to something written in G...Anonymous, you linked me to something written in German. Since I don't read German, quite obviously, I was not attempting to quote the source you pointed too. Once again you site facts with out pointing to sources that will verify your claims. You say, "Ask an economist how to find the value of PV kWhs," when you should be pointing an economic text that illustrates your point. You have not pointed to any credible source, that demonstrates that what you claim to have been RWI errors were in fact mistakes. You claim that the FIT was less than the German subsidy for coal, but do not include any link or the mention of any verifiable fact to back up your claim. <br /><br />The energy policy of the German state strikes me as utterly insane, especially when compared to the energy policies of China and india. The Germans, motivated by a crazy anti-nuclear ideology, appear intent on committing national economic suicide. Finally, you refuse to reveal your personal identity, and then turn around and present argument that i must accept solely on your personal authority. Since you are arguing for the rationality of an economic policy which i believe to be insane, you have to convince me that you are not insane yourself, and so far you are not doing a good job.Charles Bartonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01125297013064527425noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7597656451205429515.post-48676215806368837082009-12-31T11:48:46.744-06:002009-12-31T11:48:46.744-06:00DV8 2XL
That's a good story. I see what you&#...DV8 2XL<br /><br />That's a good story. I see what you're getting at. Aluminum smelters are relatively frequency sensitive IIRC. <br /><br />Some processes have no flexibility and we shouldn't try to force a round peg in a square. On the other hand, some processes are flexible so DR has potential. <br /><br />I don't think we know how much potential DR has yet. We can only guess. You think there's very little potential. I think there's a ton. Jury is out.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7597656451205429515.post-1952459279742650772009-12-31T11:32:46.298-06:002009-12-31T11:32:46.298-06:00Charles
I showed you the original quote you'r...Charles<br /><br />I showed you the original quote you're trying to quote. You are quoting the wrong years. Your mistake is fundamental. <br /><br />Ask an economist how to find the value of PV kWhs. It's been done before. You run a simulation of the generation profile of PV and then compare it against a matching wholesale price (spot price if you wish) profile. This calculation renders a $/kWh that is higher than the average wholesale price. <br /><br />If the calculation rendered a $/kWh that was lower than the average wholesale price I'm sure RWI would have pointed that out. Think about it. You guys all need to wake up. You're hypnotized and confused. <br /><br />Speaking of distortions, the annual amount spent on the FiT is less than the amount spent subsidizing coal in Germany. Fancy that. <br /><br />Every major political party in Germany (including the FDP and CDU), Deutsche Bank, Germany's Energy Consumer Association and the DIW (German Institute of Economic Research) have all come out within the last two months in support of extending the FiT without major revisions. <br /><br />Soylent<br /><br />"Responsive loads" is a weasel word for bothering your customers and they are very unlikely to put up with it."<br /><br />We already have responsive loads. Are you bothered that your refrigerator, AC and water heater cycles on and off in response to temperature? Do you care really care if your water heater turns on at 4 o'clock vs. 5 o'clock? Do you think the average customer would?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7597656451205429515.post-323240016071107192009-12-31T03:03:27.979-06:002009-12-31T03:03:27.979-06:00Anonymous There are several flaws in your argument...Anonymous There are several flaws in your argument. First the Whole sale price of day time power dependes on its source. For example nuclear power wholesales for the same price day and night. Coal fired plants that operate on a 16/7 basis, wold basically be priced as base load power. Load following and peak generation would command a premium, but since solar PV does not have the characteristics of either, it would only command a spot market price. The spot market price would be lower than the average wholesale price of electricity, because spot market prices would have reflected the costs of operating the grid with intermittent sources of electricity. Thus the spot market price for Danish wind appears to average two thirds of the wholesale price of day time non-wind generated electricity in Denmark. <br /><br />Further more the FIT for renewables introduces a distortion in the electrical that effects the whole sale price of all electricity. Why not base the comparison of the PV FIT to the wholesale price of nuclear which solar PV is meant to replace, or to the wholesale price of new nuclear, which would have been far lower than the solar PV FIT.Charles Bartonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01125297013064527425noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7597656451205429515.post-16733328421404791932009-12-30T23:06:06.183-06:002009-12-30T23:06:06.183-06:00Anon: "Dynamic meters allow dynamic pricing. ...Anon: "Dynamic meters allow dynamic pricing. Dynamic pricing allows price responsive loads. Price responsive loads stabilize the grid. Connect the dots. This ain't rocket science."<br /><br />And customers REJECT dynamic meters because they DISLIKE dynamic pricing. "Responsive loads" is a weasel word for bothering your customers and they are very unlikely to put up with it.<br /><br />This does not in any way help the renewables case. Connect the dots.Markus Gålfalknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7597656451205429515.post-2237729953252688732009-12-30T18:03:46.770-06:002009-12-30T18:03:46.770-06:00Part 3. The future of PV
I'm tired of you guy...Part 3. The future of PV<br /><br />I'm tired of you guys and I’m sure you're tired of me so I'll leave you with this. <br /><br />I figure plant operator's fondness for flashlights is nearly universal. Any plant operator can tell you that LED flashlights have been improving steadily over the last few years in terms of price and brightness - or price/brightness. How much brighter will LEDs get? How much cheaper? How long will it be before LEDs will take over in areas traditionally dominated by bulbs? Much brighter, much cheaper and pretty damn soon in the big scheme of things. <br /><br />LEDs consist of a semiconducting chip that when fed electrons, pumps out photons. When you think about it, LEDs are basically upside down solar cells. You've got your n-type and p-type layers, your electron/hole pairs, and your circuit. <br /><br />I hope everyone understands that LEDs have plenty of room for improvement and as they improve they will become increasingly competitive. If you look into the past, LED powered toys and other niche applications. If you look into the future you can see LEDs providing general purpose illumination. It's all about price. That's it and there's nothing more to it. We're just waiting for the price to come down as the manufacturing technology improves. <br /><br />PV is no different. PV has plenty of room to improve in terms of efficiency, install-ability and most importantly - price. If you look into the past, PV powered specialized "gadgets" such satellites, lighthouses and oil derricks. If you look into the future you can see it providing general purpose electricity. In the big scheme of things this isn't very far away. Again, most of the world is just waiting for the price to come down as the manufacturing processes improve. <br /><br />Germany's FiT has sped up the progress of PV by over 10 years and you armchairers call it a failure. That's funny.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7597656451205429515.post-43843881512361368062009-12-30T18:03:41.243-06:002009-12-30T18:03:41.243-06:00"Dynamic pricing allows price responsive load...<i>"Dynamic pricing allows price responsive loads."</i><br /><br />First of all "dynamic pricing" apparently means getting less of an increase in the rate, which seems to be the "reward" offered by most of the utilities in their flexible pricing plans. Most people will resent like hell being told that they should shower before six in the morning, cook their dinner after seven at night, and do their laundry at four AM. For most of us it will just mean paying a premium where we didn't have to before and complaining loudly about it, which is exactly what is coming down in those places that put this metering in. Micro. Econ. 101 crap about pricing having a direct effect on demand just doesn't happen in the real world. Things are a bit more messy when real people are involved.<br /><br />As for the industrial side I have a story that illustrates what can happen when a company tries to save energy without looking at the full impacts of that decision.<br /><br />The firm in question operated several large very high temperature, very high vacuum ovens for heat-treating aircraft engine parts. Because of these ovens and other loads being drawn by this plant, it was determined that they were going over the maximum power they had contracted for on their existing line. The solution was to bring in another 3KV triple, however somebody looked at the plant's electrical consumption records and saw that there would be available power at night. All we had to do was shift the scheduling around to accommodate this.<br /><br />Now for various metallurgical reasons the timing of the heat treat cycles had to be done before certain intervals elapsed after other processes, so it was not going to be just a case of placing a hold on the line.<br /><br />In fact this is why I was brought in, to help determine just how much elasticity there was in the timing. There wasn't much, but they forged ahead with this plan. It was a disaster <br /><br />The upshot was that to accommodate the ovens the day shift would now have to start work at 0500h, and the afternoon shift would have to start at 1430h. This caused a huge ripple of pain through the plant as people that were using public transit now had to drive, daycare had to be paid at much higher rates, and so on and so on. I remember going back to this place a few weeks after this was implemented to find twice the number of cars in the parking lot, and being told when I got in that the management hopes were that they could get productivity back to what it had been before the change sometime in the next two quarters.<br /><br />The fact is they had lost their shirts on this plan, lost key personnel and were going to be facing a very angry union at contract negotiations that were going to begin shortly. I was told privately that the whole adventure had cost them three times what the new line would have been. <br /><br />Now this was years ago, and worker expectations were different and so on, but it does go to show that load shifting can have a huge impact on a company that can far exceed realized savings. In other words, like the home consumers, there isn't as much headroom for load management as its supporters think there is.<br /><br /><i>"I don't see why these customers would balk at participating in DR programs if they were properly compensated."</i><br /><br />What you don't see is that the customer will value his inconvenience much higher than the utility wants to pay. Thus you are not compensating people for changing usage patterns, as much as you are punishing them if they don't and that will not be tolerated.DV8 2XLhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14595060432772287143noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7597656451205429515.post-51869575568416514362009-12-30T16:34:44.505-06:002009-12-30T16:34:44.505-06:00Anonymous, you are attempting to officiate the obv...Anonymous, you are attempting to officiate the obvious. You are attempting to avoid powerful evidence of the failure of huge German PV subsidies to replace nuclear power in Germany, with solar generated electricity. 59 cents per kW for day time electricity is absurdly high, and would only be charged in countries where renewables and other politically correct forms of electricity are heavily subsidized. The the question of whether the data should have been aggregated. The fact is that the German people have been forced to pay a huge amount of money because of a failed renewables policy that is leading their nation into economic ruin.Charles Bartonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01125297013064527425noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7597656451205429515.post-30268178977517378722009-12-30T16:27:58.097-06:002009-12-30T16:27:58.097-06:00Anonymous, if someone presented you with a water t...Anonymous, if someone presented you with a water tank which could be hooked up to a household tap and had a water outlet at the bottom,and explained that the various cisterns and tubes within it enabled you to get two glasses of water out of your tap for the same amount of water which would normally only fill one glass, would you believe them? Wouldn't you be just a little bit suspicious?Finrodhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02447747229391757964noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7597656451205429515.post-3505977050565845442009-12-30T15:16:22.920-06:002009-12-30T15:16:22.920-06:00My statements are correct. I read the RWI study pa...My statements are correct. I read the RWI study page by page. Did you? The reason why I thought they used average wholesale electricity rates vs. time-weighted electricity rates is because the report indicated this. Do I need to provide a source that explains your source? You should have investigated the error yourself. If I tell you you mispelled a word do I need to provide a dictionary? <br /><br />If you have a minimal understanding of wholesale electricity markets you understand that daytime electricity is generally more expensive than night time electricity. If you want to assign a value to electricity production that is tied to wholesale electricity rates you have to match the time of production with wholesale rates at that particular time. This is so obvious I figured there was no way RWI could have missed it. Why produce a study that is so obviously wrong? Why? There is no good reason.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7597656451205429515.post-25161211814251694032009-12-30T14:41:58.147-06:002009-12-30T14:41:58.147-06:00Charles
You miss quoted your own source and you&#...Charles<br /><br />You miss quoted your own source and you're scolding me? <br /><br />Here's the source.<br /><br />http://www.fr-online.de/in_und_ausland/wirtschaft/aktuell/1905473_Sonnenstrom-Zu-hochgerechnet.html<br /><br />DV8 2XL<br /><br />"So what? This does nothing to stabilize the grid, and for whatever reason customers are irritated by them, it doesn't stop them from being so."<br /><br />Dynamic meters allow dynamic pricing. Dynamic pricing allows price responsive loads. Price responsive loads stabilize the grid. Connect the dots. This ain't rocket science. <br /><br />"Every single model of demand-side regulation that is strict and aggressive enough to allow anything over a small fraction of variable supply, heaps inconvenience on the consumer"<br /><br />I've already pointed out that ELCON wholeheartedly supports Demand Response. ELCON's position is that its industrial members should be properly compesated for their energy management actions. <br /><br />Residential users have even more flexibility when it comes to load management than industrial users. I don't see why these customers would balk at participating in DR programs if they were properly compensated.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7597656451205429515.post-34942851720063214132009-12-30T14:25:47.780-06:002009-12-30T14:25:47.780-06:00Anonymous, I got a guy who won;t reveal his name, ...Anonymous, I got a guy who won;t reveal his name, telling me solely on his own authority that RWI got it all wrong. Mind you no links, no contrasting authorities, no facts to back up the assertions. Anonymous, why should I believe you when you won't even back up your assertions with a name, let alone some reputable authority. At least RWI reports are signed, and there is a return address. Sorry, but your statement lacks the mimimal requirements for credibility. .Charles Bartonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01125297013064527425noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7597656451205429515.post-88326529830373448192009-12-30T09:27:46.819-06:002009-12-30T09:27:46.819-06:00Happy new years to you too Frank.
Charles
It tu...Happy new years to you too Frank. <br /><br />Charles<br /><br />It turns out RWI didn't use a time weighted wholesale electricity value to do their calculation. They also failed to account for the savings associated with reduced network congestion. They also failed to disaggregate the PV FiT costs for rooftop vs. farms installations with are subsidized differently. <br /><br />Is Germany still subsidizing PV? Yes, but RWI screwed up the calculation. <br /><br />Taking into account the factors mentioned above the value (at this point) looks more like 50 billion euro. Mind you, this value takes into account extending the FiT schedule out to 2013. <br /><br />It wouldn't surprise me if Germany installed much more PV this year than has previously been forecast. In this case the subsidy cost will have to be adjusted upwards but that's really not the issue here. The issue is that RWI's calculation of FiT cost was poorly done. RWI is a right wing leaning organization, be careful with their data in the future.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7597656451205429515.post-56396590034987323232009-12-30T08:24:55.300-06:002009-12-30T08:24:55.300-06:00"You are well aware that solid state meters a...<i>"You are well aware that solid state meters are much more accurate than induction meters."</i><br /><br />So what? This does nothing to stabilize the grid, and for whatever reason customers are irritated by them, it doesn't stop them from being so. <br /><br />Every single model of demand-side regulation that is strict and aggressive enough to allow anything over a small fraction of variable supply, heaps inconvenience on the consumer - a fact that is glossed over in all of the pitches made that suggest the Smart Grid will be the magic solution to all of renewable energy's shortcomings. Early indications are that those at the cutting edge of this aren't too happy, and that does not auger well for deeper implementations of these programs. <br /><br />The bottom line is that demand side load management cannot be done transparently no mater how much handwaving supporters do to pretend it can be, and there will be repercussions. Within that context those technologies that can offer a constant supply of low-cost energy like gas and nuclear, will garner greater public support. You guys tend to forget that you have been implying that renewables could pick up the slack seamlessly, this isn't true, and the consumer isn't going to cooperate by keeping still as service declines. That's the lesson that needs to be drawn from this.DV8 2XLhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14595060432772287143noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7597656451205429515.post-15680375475961827562009-12-29T21:10:21.910-06:002009-12-29T21:10:21.910-06:00DV8 2XL
“You're just flipping firecrackers no...DV8 2XL<br /><br />“You're just flipping firecrackers now "X" and trying to twist what others have said, a sure sign of someone running out of rational arguments. “<br /><br />My arguments are consistent and plenty rational. I think your view of the Smart Grid leans on emotionalism and misdirection. Your meandering story about the customers in Fresno and Bakersfield is an example of this. You are well aware that solid state meters are much more accurate than induction meters. Companies like Landis and Gyr didn’t get to their leadership position by building crap. According to the story you refer to, one out of every 3600 customers who have received smart meters have complained. I figure you know that a likely source of frustration for many of these customers is that induction meters tend to slow down over time. If you have a particularly slow meter you're in for a surprise when the SS meter goes in. By my reckoning 1100 mad customers out of four million meter installations is an indication of a successful smart meter roll out. It's also probably an indication that PG&E and other utilities have a spot on meter maintenance programs but that's another matter entirely. I couldn't care less what the Fresno Bee and their ilk think. Journalist have no engineering experience or operational knowledge. So again, the very foundation of these meter complaints doesn't make a lick of sense when you step back and think for two seconds. Solid state meters have no moving parts. Induction meters do. When calibrated correctly solid state meters win any reasonable accuracy argument. So, if you know what I think you know about solid state meters and their accuracy your story about lawyers benefiting from the smart grid is either disingenuous or irrational.<br /> <br />Your use of words like rationing, scam, fraud, miracle, faith, and truth when describing the Smart Grid strikes me as emotionalism. I’d rather you argue the engineering of the Smart Grid. If you know that FRDs can provide VAR support you should also know that price responsiveness can aid in generation scheduling. I think enabling dumb water heaters with frequency AND price responsiveness will make the grid stronger than dumb water heaters with frequency responsive capabilities only. The microprocessors needed to add frequency and price responsiveness are expected to cost about 5 dollars per appliance.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7597656451205429515.post-37106945760649269442009-12-29T20:35:17.007-06:002009-12-29T20:35:17.007-06:00Anonymous
How convenient to deny the massive Germ...Anonymous<br /><br />How convenient to deny the massive German expenditure for their renewable energy failure by your lunatic ranting. In one of your comments you stated, “Do not underestimate the German ingenuity”? I can assure you those Germans who dream up the renewable energy utopia were not the Germans who put a man on the Moon.<br />I do not underestimate the Germans at all. Most of them are already fed up with green fanatics and things are changing.<br />I suggest you go preach your solar energy and smart grid fantasy to UAE. They may charge you with conspiracy to undermine their economy and chop your head off for it.<br />Please reveal your identity before they slice the sword through your neck so they can chisel out this message on your tombstone.. Here rest in peace “your name”, the solar PV and Smart Grid genius who defended his twisted beliefs all the way to his death.Frank Kandrnalnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7597656451205429515.post-4803641860020841442009-12-29T18:36:22.630-06:002009-12-29T18:36:22.630-06:00You're just flipping firecrackers now "X&...You're just flipping firecrackers now "X" and trying to twist what others have said, a sure sign of someone running out of rational arguments. <br /><br />I wrote in response to Craig that I was well aware that the Smart Grid is more than demand management, and certainly Centralized Remedial Action Schemes (C-RAS)are part of that, however you will note that these are implemented to help assure the delivery of power - not ration it, per se.<br /><br />Frequency responsive devices, IF they are mandated such that early adopters aren't paying a price in performance dragging the dumb loads around, has some merit, it is true. However FRD is envisioned to help with VAR issues, in and of itself it cannot be expected to make loads flexible enough to adapt to fluctuating supplies.<br /> <br />I will give the crack about digital vs induction meters the attention such a question is due within the context of this debate.<br /><br />The point is not that there is or isn't advantages with implementing a more intelligent grid, the real issue is whether the public wishes to see defacto rationing of electric power to accommodate renewable energy. The early indications based on the current smart metering progams, is that they are not.<br /><br />That in the final analysis will be the downfall of renewable energy and limit its penetration on the grid - given a choice, people won't put up with the inconvenience, and certainly will not be happy paying a premium to endure it.DV8 2XLhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14595060432772287143noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7597656451205429515.post-23805677119006027142009-12-29T16:04:29.310-06:002009-12-29T16:04:29.310-06:00Part 2.5
DV8 2XL
Do you think induction meters a...Part 2.5<br /><br />DV8 2XL<br /><br />Do you think induction meters are more accurate than solid state meters? Are smart reclosers part of the smart grid fraud? Are frequency responsive devices part of the smart grid fraud? RAS schemes? Just where do you draw the line? <br /><br />Charles<br /><br />What in particular make smart meters more hackable than the current devices on the grid? Can you provide a source for this concern? I don't want to get into the subject of grid vulnerabilities but I will say that hacking smart meters looks like a low bang for the buck endeavour. <br /><br />“Germany has subsidized its PV industry to the tune of a 73 billion dollars subsidy between 2000 and 2009.”<br /><br />First off, it’s unclear to me whether the RWI study was done correctly. Specifically, it looks like they projected the subsidy costs of PV by comparing the FIT against average wholesale electricity costs. A proper calculation would compare the FIT to time weighted wholesale electricity costs. Perhaps they did the calculation using time-weighted wholesale rates but it’s not at all clear. <br /><br />Second off, there’s a difference between having committed to spend 73 billion and having already spent 73 billion. <br /><br />Third off, the RWI study goes from 2000 to 2010. The study says, “Future PV installations in 2009 and 2010 may cause further real cost worth 18.3 Bn € (US $ 25.5 Bn) (Table 4).Adding both figures yields a total of 53.3 Bn € (US $ 73.2 Bn) for PV alone.”<br /><br />“Now in order to duplicate the output of its nuclear plants with PV generated electricity, germany might have to spend up to 2 trillion dollars.”<br /><br />Bad math. You can’t use a linear calculation because the subsidy digresses over time. Ultimately, the plan is for PV to reach grid parity. After that PV ends up saving electricity consumers money. The RWI study completely neglects to mention this possibility. Additionally, I find RWI’s failure to mention that PV prices have dropped precipitously in the last four quarters highly suspicious. <br /><br />Frank<br /><br />"If you are such a firm believer in solar power then why don’t you post under your true identity? I view you as a coward when you don’t attach your name to your beliefs. What are you afraid of? There is always the risky possibility you may get lynched when solar power turns out to be a flop and angry public turns against you. Oh, I see! You are one of those guys who will quickly drop the green coat when things go wrong and dress in whatever will be politically correct at the time.<br /><br />Ouch... You're kinda being a dick with all this over the top crap. Privacy is my right - end of story. <br /><br />Power engineer eh? The degree kind or the steam ticket kind? I assume you're off grid. How large and how old is your system?<br /><br />D. Walters<br /><br />“It allows some, very little, personal/residential load shifting but does absolutely nothing to lower usage or gain efficiency.”<br /><br />Beg to differ. Residential loads are very flexible. If water heaters and AC are used to respond to price signals you can avoid energy shortages. Improving demand elasticity makes the system more efficient by definition. You don’t need to trust theory because there are plenty of real world examples of this. More price signals means more demand response - This if friggin’ obvious. You guys can bury your heads in the sand all you want. <br /><br />Soylent<br /><br />"Most renewable advocates I have interacted with belong to the ascetics who get a raging hard-on inconveniencing or being inconvencienced for some supposed greater good; the idea of making electricity consumers dance in tune to the fickle supply of renewable electricity holds a tremendous appeal to these people."<br /><br />Funny... but complete bullshit. <br /><br />X was hereAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7597656451205429515.post-85404664929613701402009-12-29T15:22:55.126-06:002009-12-29T15:22:55.126-06:00Part 2.5
DV8 2XL
Do you think induction meters a...Part 2.5<br /><br />DV8 2XL<br /><br />Do you think induction meters are more accurate than solid state meters? Are smart reclosers part of the smart grid fraud? Are frequency responsive devices part of the smart grid fraud? RAS schemes? Just where do you draw the line? <br /><br />Charles<br /><br />What in particular make smart meters more hackable than the current devices on the grid? Can you provide a source for this concern? I don't want to get into the subject of grid vulnerabilities but I will say that hacking smart meters looks like a low bang for the buck endeavour. <br /><br />“Germany has subsidized its PV industry to the tune of a 73 billion dollars subsidy between 2000 and 2009.”<br /><br />First off, it’s unclear to me whether the RWI study was done correctly. Specifically, it looks like they projected the subsidy costs of PV by comparing the FIT against average wholesale electricity costs. A proper calculation would compare the FIT to time weighted wholesale electricity costs. Perhaps they did the calculation using time-weighted wholesale rates but it’s not at all clear. <br /><br />Second off, there’s a difference between having committed to spend 73 billion and having already spent 73 billion. <br /><br />Third off, the RWI study goes from 2000 to 2010. The study says, “Future PV installations in 2009 and 2010 may cause further real cost worth 18.3 Bn € (US $ 25.5 Bn) (Table 4).Adding both figures yields a total of 53.3 Bn € (US $ 73.2 Bn) for PV alone.”<br /><br />“Now in order to duplicate the output of its nuclear plants with PV generated electricity, germany might have to spend up to 2 trillion dollars.”<br /><br />Bad math. You can’t use a linear calculation because the subsidy digresses over time. Ultimately, the plan is for PV to reach grid parity. After that PV ends up saving electricity consumers money. The RWI study completely neglects to mention this possibility. Additionally, I find RWI’s failure to mention that PV prices have dropped precipitously in the last four quarters highly suspicious. <br /><br />Frank<br /><br />"If you are such a firm believer in solar power then why don’t you post under your true identity? I view you as a coward when you don’t attach your name to your beliefs. What are you afraid of? There is always the risky possibility you may get lynched when solar power turns out to be a flop and angry public turns against you. Oh, I see! You are one of those guys who will quickly drop the green coat when things go wrong and dress in whatever will be politically correct at the time.<br /><br />Ouch... You're kinda being a dick with all this over the top crap. Privacy is my right - end of story. <br /><br />Power engineer eh? The degree kind or the steam ticket kind? I assume you're off grid. How large and how old is your system?<br /><br />D. Walters<br /><br />“It allows some, very little, personal/residential load shifting but does absolutely nothing to lower usage or gain efficiency.”<br /><br />Beg to differ. Residential loads are very flexible. If water heaters, AC are used to respond to price signals you can avoid energy shortages. Improving demand elasticity makes the system more efficient by definition. You don’t need to trust theory because there are plenty of real world examples of this. More price signals means more demand response - This if friggin’ obvious. You guys can bury your heads in the sand all you want. <br /><br />Soylent<br /><br />"Most renewable advocates I have interacted with belong to the ascetics who get a raging hard-on inconveniencing or being inconvencienced for some supposed greater good; the idea of making electricity consumers dance in tune to the fickle supply of renewable electricity holds a tremendous appeal to these people."<br /><br />Funny... but complete bullshit. <br /><br />X was hereAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7597656451205429515.post-83910369224747306682009-12-29T14:08:36.074-06:002009-12-29T14:08:36.074-06:00This argument that PV is competitive/complimentary...This argument that PV is competitive/complimentary with nuclear energy is so transparently fallacious, and so convoluted that I am beginning to question the motivation of the individual championing. Are you 'Anonymous' perhaps involved at some level with rooftop PV financially, or perhaps employed in the sector?<br /><br />At this point the most telling dismissal of solar energy has been handed the sector by the UAE who with the best solar flux values that anyone could ask for, plenty of room, and deep pockets, are building four reactors instead of solar plants. Don't think for a moment that you won't get that rubbed in your sunburned faces every chance we get.DV8 2XLhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14595060432772287143noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7597656451205429515.post-9399333946469374992009-12-29T13:19:07.488-06:002009-12-29T13:19:07.488-06:00Anonymous reportedly Germany has subsidized its PV...Anonymous reportedly Germany has subsidized its PV industry to the tune of a 73 billion dollars subsidy between 2000 and 2009. If those $73 billion brought 1% of the capacity to power the German grid, how much will it cost Germany to achieve a 10% grid penetration with PV? 20% of German generation capacity comes from nuclear power, but a little over 28% of all electricity produced in Germany comes from Nuclear. Now in order to duplicate the output of its nuclear plants with PV generated electricity, germany might have to spend up to 2 trillion dollars. Germany chose to spend two trillion dollars on nuclear plants, not only could it meet all of its power needs with nuclear generated electricity, to supply not only its own electrical needs, but the entire electrical needs of Central and Western Europe, with a surplus flowing much of the time to Eastern Europe, and Russia.Charles Bartonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01125297013064527425noreply@blogger.com