Thursday, August 27, 2009

Anticipated climate change, 21st Century


DocForesight said...

Doesn't the IPCC report conclude the average increase, by the models they consult, to be 1 deg C by 2100?

I'm not a climatologist, but does that 1 deg C translate into a 5 - 10 fold increase in 100 deg F days?

Charles Barton said...

The IPCC report was a political document. Recent climate science is pointing to far more alarming developments.

LarryD said...

Compared to 1961-1979! I'm old enough to remember that there was a nearly 30 year cold trend that ended in the 1970s, some people were worrying about a new round of glaciation starting. If that's the baseline, no wonder it looks like a disaster is in the making!

Of course, my skepticism is only fueled by incidents like the Mann "hockey stick" turning out to be an artifact of his processing. And reoccurring serious issues with Hansen's GISS data sets, which make me start questioning his integrity.

None of which has any bearing on nuclear power vs solar or wind, though.

Charles Barton said...

LarryD, I sat in a conference room at ORNL during the spring of 1971 - in the midst of the cooling trend - and listened to Dr. Jerry Olsen talk about the future of global warming. Everything Jerry foresaw that day has come to past. Did Jerry know what he was talking about? Yes he did!

LarryD said...

Did he predict that the warming trend would end around 1999? It has. Spurious warming signals to the contrary.

In fact, a new cooling trend is now in its third year. True to form, some are worrying about a new ice age. For me the interesting question is, will this trend be like 1945-1977, or will the usually weak solar cycle make it colder and longer, like the Dalton Minimum?

FYI, it looks like the large footprint of wind farms in running into problems with habitat

We're going to need 4th Gen nuclear reactors, even if certain fusion research programs bear fruit, if only to use up the spent nuclear fuel. But all of this is about the generation of electricity, the big problem is getting away from oil is transportation fuels. None of the alternative technologies can scale well enough to do the job.


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