Thursday, April 29, 2010

Has Global Crude Oil Production Peaked?

This chart comes from Oilwatch Monthly, via the Oil Drum. It appears that global oil production peaked about 2004. Since 2004 millions of cars have been sold in India and China. If global oil production does not increase, increased demand will drive gasoline prices ever higher. May observers believe that an increase in oil production is unlikely, and production declines will soon begin.

5 comments:

Anonymous said...

I don’t think it has peaked yet. There was a new monthly EIA crude and condensate production peak in July 2008 and the decline since then was probably due to OPEC production cuts. Non-OPEC production has risen slightly over the last year and OPEC is now estimated to have about 5 or 6 million barrels per day of spare capacity.

Here’s what Rembrandt Koppelaar says on page 1 of the full PDF subscription version of Oil Watch Monthly:

As the recovery continues for now there is a high chance that the standing record of highest monthly production of 74.73 million b/d, reached in July 2008, will be broken within the next six months. And possibly also the record for the year of highest conventional crude production which was 2005 at a level of 73.72 million b/d.

David M.

Alex P. said...

I read somewhere that 20 of that 85 bpd currently consumed worldwide are for electricity generation (where there are obvious alternatives), not transportation, particurally in developing countries. Can you Charles (or others) confirm that ?

If it were so, I see peak oil as a non issue

Friakel Wippans said...

Alex,

20 out of 85 bdp going to electricity, ~24% seems way too high.

According to the IEA, electricity, CHP and heat plants account for 265 millions tonnes of petroleum products out of a total crude production of 3.570 billion tonnes, so about 7.5% of the production.

http://www.iea.org/stats/oildata.asp?COUNTRY_CODE=29

Non-OECD statistics are notoriously unreliable but I wouldn't think the error would be that great.

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