An Energy from Thorium member, Cyril R, provided me with a link to
a new web page that charts the performance of Germany's installed Photovoltaic capacity. This link provides some measures of how well German PV is performing on a real time and daily basis. For example, it is currently 2:28 PM on November 20, 2010. Germany's 15.17 GWs of installed PV capacity is currently producing 1.8 GWs of electricity, already well past its peak output for today. 1.8 GWs of electrical output, is 12% of installed capacity, and that already represents a substantial drop from the system maximum noon time power output. Another graft on the same web page indicates that no power was generated before 7:30 AM German time this morning, and power output will be back to zero by 4:15 PM this afternoon. Thus electrical output German PV is anticipated for less than 1/3rd of today. During the time it has so far taken me to write this paragraph, German PV output has dropped over 10% more, to 1.6 GW.
According to a story in the New York Times, Germany expects to spend
120 billion euros ($184 billion) in public support (for Solare PV generating facilities) by 2015.
Yet there is only enough sunshine in Germany to generate electricity for 1528 hours a year or less than 20% of the time.
I should pause her to tell you that it is now 2:55 PM in Germany and electrical generation from Solar PV sources has dropped to 1.3 GWs. In an hour and 20 minutes that figure will be down to zero. Is Germany's enormous investment in Solar PV a worthwhile alternative to nuclear power? Of course not. We are talking about an impossible fantasy.
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Hi Charles, Lars pointed out even I was to generous! The capacity factor for november 20 was only 3 percent.
Three percent. To be fully accurate, the capacity factor is 0.03.
At least 25 times less production than a typical nuclear plant would get on an average day.
Cheers, Cyril.
I think we should explore all the options including solar and including nuke. I would support an R&D project on thorium power. I just don't believe in putting all of our eggs in one basket. I also don't believe that the cost of delivering energy should be the only criteria for determining what is good and what is bad. The cost of R&D in energy is extremely small compared to the size of the global economy or the cost of exploring for new oil fields. So lets spend some money and learn some stuff.
Anonymous we sometimes need to use our common sense. The current problems with the performance PV power in germany, and its very high cost were all predictable, and in fact have been long predicted. People who attempted to talk with Green solar advocates a few years ago, quickly discovered that greens simply refused to believe that here was a potentially huge problem with solar costs. They still do, unfortunately, While the cost of delivering energy is not the only important criteria, it most certainly be given serious consideration. Reliability is another important consideration and solar PVs fall down on reliability issues as well as costs.
"I think we should explore all the options including solar and including nuke...
...So lets spend some money and learn some stuff."
We already know solar is useless for large scale energy production, so no further research is needed in that direction.
warning, going off on a tangent below:
It's been clear for some time that PV is useless for large scale power generation; but I'm sligthly more optimistic about solar PV than I used to be.
The first watt of electricity is much more important than the 100th watt and ridiculously more important than the 10 000th watt.
It might make some sense to have a PV panel integrated with the lowest maintenance/most robust batteries available in a robust; capable of supplying 10 W more or less continuously in a German november(I guestimate 300-400 W panel and 1 kWh battery). It wouldn't be remotely cheap, but having guaranteed access to 10 W, no matter what could be a nice insurance policy for low-probability, highly disruptive events(war, say).
10 W average is enough to listen to radio continuously. To keep a flash light charged. To keep a small reading or working light going. To run a soldering iron intermittently. To keep a mobile phone charged(you get a surprising amount of computing power in smart phone that tops out at a few watts of power consumption while running 3d games or hi-def video). Phones can capture documentary evidence in the form of videos and photograps, can make vital calls assuming the mobile phone masts are up(they are many, dispersed and robust), can listen to radio and many other useful things given the right software.
I suspect you might be able to tell by now that I'm one of those "crazy" people who has a ~30% savings rate and keep a month or so of food and drinking water just in case. It's not that I'm particularly fearful or have a doom-fetish; it's that hyperinflation, war, pandemics and supply line disruption and the like, while being rare(I don't expect to experience it first hand in my life time), can and do happen without too much warning.
The food I keep is all the same stuff I usually eat, excluding the highly perishable stuff, so none of it is wasted; it just takes up space. It's bars of chocolate, müsli, crisp bread, pasta, UHT milk, UHT cream, various canned goods, canola oil, beer, flour, rice, dry fruit, yellow split peas, pickled olives, pickled beets, potatoes, onions, eggs, garlic, jam, waffle mix, spices, tomato paste, dry yeast, salt, sugar, buillon cubes, peanuts, almonds, walnuts and so on.
It's not like it's a cost or a big hassle either. As long as you don't let stuff expire and throw it away you save by buying more bulk and taking better advantage of special offers(I'm not a big coupon clipper, but I take advantage when I see a good deal). You rarely have to go to another store because they're temporarily out of something; skip it and pick up more next week when it's back in stock. Part of it is just my natural lazyness; if you forget to pick something up at the store you most likely have a few spares at home.
warning, going off on a tangent below:
It's been clear for some time that PV is useless for large scale power generation; but I'm sligthly more optimistic about solar PV than I used to be.
The first watt of electricity is much more important than the 100th watt and ridiculously more important than the 10 000th watt.
It might make some sense to have a PV panel integrated with the lowest maintenance/most robust batteries available in a robust; capable of supplying 10 W more or less continuously in a German november(I guestimate 300-400 W panel and 1 kWh battery). It wouldn't be remotely cheap, but having guaranteed access to 10 W, no matter what could be a nice insurance policy for low-probability, highly disruptive events(war, say).
10 W average is enough to listen to radio continuously. To keep a flash light charged. To keep a small reading or working light going. To run a soldering iron intermittently. To keep a mobile phone charged(you get a surprising amount of computing power in smart phone that tops out at a few watts of power consumption while running 3d games or hi-def video). Phones can capture documentary evidence in the form of videos and photograps, can make vital calls assuming the mobile phone masts are up(they are many, dispersed and robust), can listen to radio and many other useful things given the right software.
I suspect you might be able to tell by now that I'm one of those "crazy" people who has a ~30% savings rate and keep a month or so of food and drinking water just in case. It's not that I'm particularly fearful or have a doom-fetish; it's that hyperinflation, war, pandemics and supply line disruption and the like, while being rare(I don't expect to experience it first hand in my life time), can and do happen without too much warning.
I just keep more of the stuff which isn't very persishable and I usually eat anyway; so there's no waste and a number of fringe benefits(taking better advantage of sales, if you forgot to buy something you most likely have a couple of spares at home...)
anon,
I'm with you. I have a small radio/flashlight that is battery powered and can be recharged by the sun or a hand crank. It sits on my window sill to maintain a full charge.
I cost me $30 and I "installed" it myself.
charlesH
@Anon - Thanks for the shopping list. Wind and solar really only make sense for rural, off-grid, remote locations that otherwise would not receive any electric power conveniences. I'm referring to places where there is NO power now, and not likely to receive power in 20-30 years.
Even with SMRs and micro-nukes there is going to be a delay in development, production and deployment that will make thousands (millions?)of rural areas last on the list from a priority standpoint.
The evidence is clear and the Laws of Physics don't alter the reality that wind and solar don't measure up for base-load power needs. And our company does solar with battery back-up systems.
Yesterday's capacity factor was about 3.2 percent, it looks like today will be even worse (no better than 3.1 percent, possibly under 3 percent!)
Nuclear gets you 100% on most winter days, solar gets you 3-4 percent.
http://energyfromthorium.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=39&t=2689
The problem we face is that we have too many potential eggs, and only a small basket. We need to make sure the rotten eggs aren't included. Diversify yes, research and development yes, but there are limited funds and some options are just so pathetic we can't afford to focus on those.
PV electricity is useful for applications where you don't need more than a few kW & it would be difficult to get a grid connection. The reductions in cost of PV cells & storage batteries needed to make it useful in other situations look unlikely.
Another factor that *should* be obvious is it's not much use at high latitudes near the winter solstice or in regions that get long periods of thick cloud.
Perhaps in Germany dumped the subsidies for solar the PV cells could be moved to off grid locations closer to the equator where they could actually be useful.
@Jim Baerg -- You are spot on. I struggled with the moral aspect of this after learning about the unequaled potential of nuclear power. Was it ethical for me or our company to charge what we had to charge in order to bring power to these off-grid locations (some are not so remote or rural, but lack a grid nonetheless)?
What helped me understand and accept that, yes, there is a place for this, was seeing the "Projects" at www.self.org. This is what I mean by locations that will not likely get access to 24/7 power in 20-30-40 years. Even micro-nukes may not be appropriate for these villages and outposts.
The potential for communications, potable water pumps, lighting and 'light' industry would greatly enhance their quality of life. What is that worth?
I calculated todays capacity factor to be 1% or 0.01 (!)
Yikes! Dark days in Germany!
Cheers, Cyril
It's almost noon in Germany now and the meter is reading ZERO. Good investment. I wish there was a similiar meter for other places and...for wind and other energy sources on a country by country basis.
David
I suggest the German Greens shine very powerful halogen lamps on their solar cells day and night, feeding the lamps with electricity generated from their remaining nuclear power plants.
It is the only way the Greens will ever be able to brag about any German solar power plant performance.
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