If we were to try to convince the US to pursue MSR technology, what would we propose? to whom? Who would carry out the work? How much would it cost? How long would it take? Can we argue for long-term funding, by treaty, as supplied to the CERN supercollider? What university professors and research laboratory scientists would support such a proposal and also have credibility and influence?
I've met with my congressman and senator on the subject of energy in the past, but I don't know what I would ask for on the subject of the thorium MSR.
This question poses a dilemma for the sort of innovative project that can reasonably expected to contribute to our post carbon energy future. If no funding is available, and past attempts to secure funding have been discouraged, then there is no incentive to to continue to develop projects, even on a conceptual level. Thus we get caught in a vicious circle, that no funding leads to a lack of interest, and the lack of interest then becomes the excuse for no funding.
Dr. Hargraves has been a brilliant advocate for Pebble Bed Reactor technology, and the dilemma effects PBR development in the United States no less than it does MSR/LFTR technology.
I would contend that PBR technology, MSR/LFTR technology can play critical roles in future resolutions of our energy crisis. Both reactor types are very safe and highly efficient, and can be manufactured at much lower costs than traditional reactor designs, they have great potential for reducing the cost of nuclear generated electricity. Because of their low cost, both LFTRs and PBRs can serve as peak electrical generators as well as well as base load generators. In addition MSRs have excellent load following characteristics. Indeed load following can extend the core life of graphite cored LFTRs, by lessening the intensity of neutron radiation the core is exposed too. The load following ability of LFTRs also makes them candidates to support wind electrical generating systems, since the ability of LFTRs to quickly respond to rapidly changing electrical currents from wind generators.
Renewables advocates often suggest the use of fossil fuel plants for load following and generation back up, but this option is not sustainable, is expensive, generates CO2, and outs European nations at risk for energy blackmail by natural gas suppliers. Therefore the flexibility of the LFTR makes it an ideal candidate to be paired with wind generation systems, and thus a prime candidate to replace coal and gas burning electrical plants. The rub is that a system of LFTRs would be a low cost alternative to a system of unreliable windmills with LFRT backup. This no doubt rests at the heart of the opposition to nuclear power, by renewables advocates.
At any rate either with or without renewables, the
There are several advantages of LFTRs over PBRs. However PBR's may have some advantageous in the area of proliferation resistance. Thus it is possible to sell PBR's to countries that are a considered a proliferation risk with MSRs. PBRs can be produced cheaply, do not require containment structures, do not require elaborate and expensive containment structures, can replace coal, natural gas, and oil fired generators, are extremely safe, can be operated by simple low cost computers, can provide industrial process heat, heat for space heating, and heat for desalinization in addition to electricity. There low cost makes them attractive options for peak load generators. There are several disadvantages of PBRs vis-à-vis LFTRs. PBRs don't breed or convert their own nuclear fuel. While LFTRs can burn up to 98% of the thorium in their system, PBRs can only burn a tiny fraction of their potential nuclear fuel. As a consequence PBRs produce several orders of magnitude more nuclear waste than LFRTs. The difficulty and expense of reprocessing PBR fuel is a key to their proliferation resistance.
A second disadvantage of PBRM's is that they are not good load followers. In order to follow loads, PBR operators would have to be dumped heat rather than running it through the generating system. This is not efficient use of nuclear power.
Despite these disadvantageous PBR's are destined to play a significant role in the replacement of fossil fuel power plants with nuclear reactors. Like LFTRs, PBRs can be quickly and inexpensively built in very large numbers in factories. Thus, for example, the Chinese, who are developing their own PBR technology, could build thousands of PBRs between 2020 and 2050. Reportedly the Chinese have already offered Canada PBRs to be used in processing Alberta tar sands into crude oil. The rub would be that the oil would then go to China.
South Africa is developing its own PBR which is a little more technologically advanced than the Chinese concept. The South Africans probably can project a very large market for the sale of these reactors. Both the under developed countries of Africa, and Latin America, as well as the more advanced nations of Europe, North America and Asia, would be included in the South African target markets. Thus it can be foreseen that PBRs will play a major role in the replacement of carbon based electrical and energy sources between 2020 and 2050.
LFTRs, because of their superior fuel efficiency, the major reduction of the problem of nuclear wast that LFTR technology brings, their safety, their ability to serve as base load generators, peak load generators, and effect load followers, and there low manufacturing cost, would be the preferred power generation technology for nuclear capable nations. A nuclear capable country is a nation which posses the capacity to produce nuclear weapons, without new technological transfers from external sources. An illustration of nuclear capacity would be South Africa, which developed its own centrifuge Uranium enrichment technology in the 1970's and 80's and managed to produce 6 nuclear weapons. Other nations which are nuclear capable include Argentina, Australia, Canada, the Ukraine, Japan, Taiwan, Egypt, Turkey, Iran, Brazil, Poland, the Czech Republic, Germany, Spain and other European nations. All of these countries could produce nuclear weapons if they chose too.
The low cost of LFRT factory manufacture, plus their many attractive features, and the abundance of recoverable thorium, will mean that in many situations LFTRs will be preferred to PBRs for both power and heat, in many situations. Like PBRs, relatively small (100 MWe to 300 MWe) LFTRs can be built in factories and transported to their long term sites. While LFTR technology is not being developed at the same pace as as PBR technology is proceeding, a large knowledge base was developed in Oak Ridge between 1960 and 1976. In addition other recent technological breakthroughs, for example the development of high temperature gas turbine technology, have technological problems that were unresolved when ORNL stopped working on MSR development in 1976.
Given the current state of LFTR development, a Manhattan Project style development program commenced by 2012, could have LFTRs moving out factory doors by 2020. There are no insurmountable barriers to large scale production.
With their potential for easy, quick and low cost manufacture, PBRs and LFTRs will play a major role in the future of energy, and will be by 2050 the predominant source of electricity world wide.
If reactors are to be the major form by which future energy is produced, more attention needs to be paid to how energy gets stored for transportation. At present Lithium-ion batteries represent the preferred technology for the electrification of transportation in the near future, however, lithium Ion technology brings with it a number of draw backs. First is safety related issues, that are caused by battery heating due to rapid discharge. The second serious problem is Lithium-ion batteries costs which are anticipate to run in the neighborhood of $30,000 for the first Lithium-ion powered EVs. For that price Lithium Ion Batteries offer uninspiring performance. The trip range of the GM Volt is expected to be about 30 miles with our backup from internal combustion engine. That is good for drives to work, and errands, but not for trips out of town.
It is highly desirable then, if carbon based technology is to be replaced in transportation that better electrical storage technology must emerge. Lithium-Sulfur batteries appear to have potential as one such technology. According to a recent Insyncworld report,
Li_S technology is newly emerging, but appears to hold great potential including greatly extended battery powered driving ranges, and lower costs. Although personal transportation would seem to be a lower priority on the energy problems list, in fact it is very important, because the physical structure of civilization in countries like the United States is highly dependent on personal mobility. Without personal transportation, the ability of workers to travel from home to work would be significantly compromised in spread out cities. Were workers to be foprced to move closer to their jobs, enormous values would be lost in home, infrastructure and commercial suburban investments. The loss of value in these investments would produce significant investment losses, that could not be easily recovered from.
Thus two reactor technologies, the LFTR and the PBR hold enormous promise as sources of low cost electrical energy and industrial heat. In addition a recently emerging battery technology, the Lithium-Sulfur battery, holds promise to improve the post-carbon transportation picture.
The development of these technologies must be given the highest priorities by our society, during the next few years, if your civilization is not to be seriously wounded. We must not allow Dr. Hargraves dilemma to inhibit that development.
A second disadvantage of PBRM's is that they are not good load followers. In order to follow loads, PBR operators would have to be dumped heat rather than running it through the generating system. This is not efficient use of nuclear power.
Despite these disadvantageous PBR's are destined to play a significant role in the replacement of fossil fuel power plants with nuclear reactors. Like LFTRs, PBRs can be quickly and inexpensively built in very large numbers in factories. Thus, for example, the Chinese, who are developing their own PBR technology, could build thousands of PBRs between 2020 and 2050. Reportedly the Chinese have already offered Canada PBRs to be used in processing Alberta tar sands into crude oil. The rub would be that the oil would then go to China.
South Africa is developing its own PBR which is a little more technologically advanced than the Chinese concept. The South Africans probably can project a very large market for the sale of these reactors. Both the under developed countries of Africa, and Latin America, as well as the more advanced nations of Europe, North America and Asia, would be included in the South African target markets. Thus it can be foreseen that PBRs will play a major role in the replacement of carbon based electrical and energy sources between 2020 and 2050.
LFTRs, because of their superior fuel efficiency, the major reduction of the problem of nuclear wast that LFTR technology brings, their safety, their ability to serve as base load generators, peak load generators, and effect load followers, and there low manufacturing cost, would be the preferred power generation technology for nuclear capable nations. A nuclear capable country is a nation which posses the capacity to produce nuclear weapons, without new technological transfers from external sources. An illustration of nuclear capacity would be South Africa, which developed its own centrifuge Uranium enrichment technology in the 1970's and 80's and managed to produce 6 nuclear weapons. Other nations which are nuclear capable include Argentina, Australia, Canada, the Ukraine, Japan, Taiwan, Egypt, Turkey, Iran, Brazil, Poland, the Czech Republic, Germany, Spain and other European nations. All of these countries could produce nuclear weapons if they chose too.
The low cost of LFRT factory manufacture, plus their many attractive features, and the abundance of recoverable thorium, will mean that in many situations LFTRs will be preferred to PBRs for both power and heat, in many situations. Like PBRs, relatively small (100 MWe to 300 MWe) LFTRs can be built in factories and transported to their long term sites. While LFTR technology is not being developed at the same pace as as PBR technology is proceeding, a large knowledge base was developed in Oak Ridge between 1960 and 1976. In addition other recent technological breakthroughs, for example the development of high temperature gas turbine technology, have technological problems that were unresolved when ORNL stopped working on MSR development in 1976.
Given the current state of LFTR development, a Manhattan Project style development program commenced by 2012, could have LFTRs moving out factory doors by 2020. There are no insurmountable barriers to large scale production.
With their potential for easy, quick and low cost manufacture, PBRs and LFTRs will play a major role in the future of energy, and will be by 2050 the predominant source of electricity world wide.
If reactors are to be the major form by which future energy is produced, more attention needs to be paid to how energy gets stored for transportation. At present Lithium-ion batteries represent the preferred technology for the electrification of transportation in the near future, however, lithium Ion technology brings with it a number of draw backs. First is safety related issues, that are caused by battery heating due to rapid discharge. The second serious problem is Lithium-ion batteries costs which are anticipate to run in the neighborhood of $30,000 for the first Lithium-ion powered EVs. For that price Lithium Ion Batteries offer uninspiring performance. The trip range of the GM Volt is expected to be about 30 miles with our backup from internal combustion engine. That is good for drives to work, and errands, but not for trips out of town.
It is highly desirable then, if carbon based technology is to be replaced in transportation that better electrical storage technology must emerge. Lithium-Sulfur batteries appear to have potential as one such technology. According to a recent Insyncworld report,
in theory, Lithium-Sulfur potentially offers over 50% more Watt-hours/liter than Lithium-Ion batteries, and over four times the Watt-hours/Kg. That allows for smaller, lighter, or longer lasting (pick two) portable devices. Those are theoretical maximums that have not yet been reached, but current Li_S batteries already have a better power/weight ratio than conventional Lithium Ion.The potential of Li_S technology is illustrared by this recent BBC story.
Li_S technology is newly emerging, but appears to hold great potential including greatly extended battery powered driving ranges, and lower costs. Although personal transportation would seem to be a lower priority on the energy problems list, in fact it is very important, because the physical structure of civilization in countries like the United States is highly dependent on personal mobility. Without personal transportation, the ability of workers to travel from home to work would be significantly compromised in spread out cities. Were workers to be foprced to move closer to their jobs, enormous values would be lost in home, infrastructure and commercial suburban investments. The loss of value in these investments would produce significant investment losses, that could not be easily recovered from.
Thus two reactor technologies, the LFTR and the PBR hold enormous promise as sources of low cost electrical energy and industrial heat. In addition a recently emerging battery technology, the Lithium-Sulfur battery, holds promise to improve the post-carbon transportation picture.
The development of these technologies must be given the highest priorities by our society, during the next few years, if your civilization is not to be seriously wounded. We must not allow Dr. Hargraves dilemma to inhibit that development.
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