Friday, February 5, 2010

Evidence of the Nuclear Renaissance

Nuclear critique Amory Lovins denies that a nuclear renaissance is underway. The World Nuclear Association keeps track of actual and potential reactors world wide in order to determine future uranium demand. The list was created in 2007 and is updated every two months. A comparison of the January 29, 2007 list with the February 1, 2010 list demonstrates that a dramatic rise in the number of reactors under construction, planned, and proposed is under way. The number of reactors under construction has increased by 89% during the last three years, while the number of planned reactors has increased by 122%, and the number of reactors under consideration has increased by over 100%. This also suggests that a development process is moving forward, with reactors moving from proposal, into a planning stage and then into a construction stage. The 2010 list suggests that the United States is lagging behind world wide nuclear development. For example, the United States has 1reactor under construction, 11 planned, and 19 under consideration. in contrast China has 20 reactors under construction, 37 planned and 120 under consideration. India has 5 reactors under construction, 23 planned, and at least 15 more under consideration, and Russia has 9 reactors under construction, 8 planned, and 37 under consideration.

29 January 2007

Argentina
6.4
6.9
2
935
1
692
0
0
1
700
135
Armenia
2.5
43
1
376
0
0
0
0
1
1000
51
Belgium
45.3
56
7
5728
0
0
0
0
0
0
1079
Brazil
9.9
2.5
2
1901
0
0
1
1245
4
4000
338
Bulgaria
17.3
44
2
1906
0
0
2
1900
0
0
255
Canada*
86.8
15
18
12595
2
1540
2
2000
0
0
1836
China
50.3
2.0
10
7587
5
4170
13
12920
50
35880
1454
Czech Republic
23.3
31
6
3472
0
0
0
0
2
1900
550
Egypt
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
600
0
Finland
22.3
33
4
2696
1
1600
0
0
0
0
472
France
430.9
79
59
63473
0
0
1
1630
1
1600
10368
Germany
154.6
31
17
20303
0
0
0
0
0
0
3486
Hungary
13.0
37
4
1773
0
0
0
0
0
0
254
India
15.7
2.8
16
3577
7
3178
4
2800
15
11100
491
Indonesia
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
4
4000
0
Iran
0
0
0
0
1
915
2
1900
3
2850
143
Israel
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1200
0
Japan
280.7
29
55
47700
2
2285
11
14945
1
1100
8872
Kazakhstan
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
300
0
Korea DPR (North)
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
950
0
0
0
Korea RO (South)
139.3
45
20
17533
1
950
7
8250
0
0
3037
Lithuania
10.3
70
1
1185
0
0
0
0
1
1000
134
Mexico
10.8
5.0
2
1310
0
0
0
0
2
2000
257
Netherlands
3.8
3.9
1
485
0
0
0
0
0
0
112
Pakistan
1.9
2.8
2
400
1
300
2
600
2
2000
64
Romania
5.1
8.6
1
655
1
655
0
0
3
1995
92
Russia
137.3
16
31
21743
3
2650
8
9600
18
21600
3777
Slovakia
16.3
56
5
2064
0
0
2
840
0
0
299
Slovenia
5.6
42
1
696
0
0
0
0
1
1000
145
South Africa
12.2
5.5
2
1842
0
0
1
165
24
4000
332
Spain
54.7
20
8
7442
0
0
0
0
0
0
1473
Sweden
69.5
45
10
8975
0
0
0
0
0
0
1468
Switzerland
22.1
32
5
3220
0
0
0
0
0
0
575
Turkey
0
0
0
0
0
0
3
4500
0
0
0
Ukraine
83.3
49
15
13168
0
0
2
1900
0
0
2003
United Kingdom
75.2
20
19
10982
0
0
0
0
0
0
2021
USA
780.5
19
103
98254
1
1200
2
2716
21
24000
20050
Vietnam
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
2000
0
NUCLEAR ELECTRICITY GENERATION 2005REACTORS OPERABLE Jan 2007REACTORS under CONSTRUCTION Jan 2007REACTORS PLANNED Jan 2007REACTORS PROPOSED Jan 2007URANIUM REQUIRED 2007
billion kWh% eNo.MWeNo.MWeNo.MWeNo.MWetonnes U
WORLD**
2626
16
435
368,860
28
22,735
64
68,861
158
124,225
66,529
billion kWh % e No. MWe No. MWe No. MWe No. MWe tonnes U
NUCLEAR ELECTRICITY GENERATION 2005REACTORS OPERATINGREACTORS BUILDINGON ORDER or PLANNEDPROPOSEDURANIUM REQUIRED


1 February 2010

COUNTRY

(Click name for
Country Profile)

NUCLEAR ELECTRICITY GENERATION 2008

REACTORS OPERABLE

1 Feb 2010

REACTORS UNDER CONSTRUCTION

1 Feb 2010

REACTORS PLANNED

Feb 2010

REACTORS PROPOSED

Feb 2010

URANIUM REQUIRED 2010

billion kWh

% e

No.

MWe

No.

MWe

No.

MWe

No.

MWe

tonnes U
Argentina
6.8
6.2
2
935
1
692
2
767
1
740
123
Armenia
2.3
39.4
1
376
0
0
1
1060


55
Bangladesh
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
2000
0
Belarus
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
2000
2
2000
0
Belgium
43.4
53.8
7
5728
0
0
0
0
0
0
1052
Brazil
14.0
3.1
2
1901
0
0
1
1245
4
4000
311
Bulgaria
14.7
32.9
2
1906
0
0
2
1900
0
0
272
Canada
88.6
14.8
18
12652
2
1500
4
4400
3
3800
1675
China
65.3
2.2
11
8587
20
21880
37
41590
120
120000
2875
Czech Republic
25.0
32.5
6
3686
0
0
0
0
2
3400
678
Egypt
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1000
1
1000
0
Finland
22.0
29.7
4
2696
1
1600
0
0
1
1000
1149
France
418.3
76.2
58
63236
1
1630
1
1630
1
1630
10153
Germany
140.9
28.3
17
20339
0
0
0
0
0
0
3453
Hungary
14.0
37.2
4
1880
0
0
0
0
2
2000
295
India
13.2
2.0
18
3981
5
2774
23
21500
15
20000
908
Indonesia
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
2000
4
4000
0
Iran
0
0
0
0
1
915
2
1900
1
300
148
Israel
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1200
0
Italy
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
10
17000
0
Japan
240.5
24.9
54
47102
1
1373
13
17915
1
1300
8003
Kazakhstan
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
600
2
600
0
Korea DPR (North)
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
950
0
0
0
Korea RO (South)
144.3
35.6
20
17716

6

6700
6
8190
0
0
3804
Lithuania
9.1
72.9
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
3400
0
Mexico
9.4
4.0
2
1310
0
0
0
0
2
2000
253
Netherlands
3.9
3.8
1
485
0
0
0
0
1
1000
107
Pakistan
1.7
1.9
2
400
1
300
2
600
2
2000
68
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
6
6000
0
Romania
7.1
17.5
2
1310
0
0
2
1310
1
655
175
Russia
152.1
16.9
31
21821
9
7130
8
8000
37
36680
4135
Slovakia
15.5
56.4
41760
2
840
0
0
1
1200
269
Slovenia
6.0
41.7
1
696
0
0
0
0
1
1000
145
South Africa
12.7
5.3
2
1842
0
0
3
3565
24
4000
321
Spain
56.4
18.3
8
7448
0
0
0
0
0
0
1458
Sweden
61.3
42.0
10
9399
0
0
0
0
0
0
1537
Switzerland
26.3
39.2
5
3252
0
0
0
0
3
4000
557
Thailand
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
2000
4
4000
0
Turkey
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
2400
1
1200
0
Ukraine
84.3
47.4
15
13168
0
0
2
1900
20
27000
2031
0
0
0
0
0
0
4
5600
10
14400
0
United Kingdom
52.5
13.5
19
11035
0
0
4
6600
6
9600
2235
USA
809.0
19.7
104
101119
1
1180
11
13800
19
25000
19538
Vietnam
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
2000
8
8000
0
WORLD**
2601
15
436
372,693
53
51,114
142
156,422
327
343,000
68,646

billion kWh
% e
No.
MWe
No.
MWe
No.
MWe
No.
MWe
tonnes U
NUCLEAR ELECTRICITY GENERATION 2008
REACTORS OPERATING
REACTORS BUILDING
ON ORDER or PLANNED
PROPOSED
URANIUM REQUIRED
It should be noted that while only one reactor was added to the world reactor fleet in the last three years, the number of reactors under construction rose from 28 to 53, the number of Reactors planned rose from 64 to 142, and the number of reactors under consideration rose from 158 to 327.

5 comments:

DV8 2XL said...

Amory Lovins denies that a nuclear renaissance is underway, eh? Well that's all the evidence I need, that one is!

The facts plainly show that Lovins has been consistently wrong about the ability of renewables to take large amounts of market-share from fossil fuels. He’s been proven wrong about the long-term ability of efficiency to reduce overall energy consumption.

And yet, despite being so wrong, so often and for so long, the smoke keeps rising in front of Lovins' altar unabated. Inexplicably Lovins retains his guru status no matter how wrong he is.

Robw said...

Charles

It seems that Tyler Hamilton of Clean Break also believes that no nuclear renaissance is underway.

http://www.cleanbreak.ca/2010/02/05/nuclear-power-renaissance-not-the-expansion-boom-the-industry-expected/

DV8 2XL said...

Hamilton is columnist for the Toronto Star, and Green is the flavor of the day at the Star, the paper being more to the Left than the Nat. Post and the Globe.

His opinions don't amount to anything really in the energy debate, to the extent that he holds any strong ones at all. He tends to reflect the wishy-washy worldview of Toronto's SUV driving, Liberal-voting, suburbanites who are his audience.

The item liked to by RobW, is a masterpiece noncommittal writing, that arms his readership with handy sound-bites that they can offer up in any energy related conversation regardless of the direction it is going in and sound like they could be agreeing with everyone.

(can you tell I'm from Montreal?)

David MacKay said...

Hi Charles, thanks for your references. The graph at the end of your article (showing uranium abundances on a log scale) is actually one that I am familiar with - I cited it in my book! (It's in the Sci Am article.) I tried to get the most up-to-date information I could on uranium and thorium geology by asking, among others, the World Nuclear Association for their estimates and references. My book's estimates about Uranium do include the phosphates that feature in your essay. It would be helpful if you could give a source for your assertion that a breeder reactor would deliver 162 times more electricity from uranium than a once-through reactor. I am very happy to be given corrections, but I don't like just being told I am "wrong" without being given a reference! Oh, and by the way, I am not "Sir David MacKay", I am just "David MacKay".

Charles Barton said...

David, From An Introduction to Argonne National Laboratory's INTEGRAL FAST REACTOR (IFR) PROGRAM, " The IFR, with its fuel reprocessing capability, can use all the uranium. There is enough uranium that has been mined and placed in barrels (uranium 238) for IFR-type plants to provide all the electricity for the United States for over 500 years -- without mining. Also, the IFR can likely reprocess the spent fuel from today's reactors, and use the recovered materials for fuel. Uranium is as abundant in the earth as many of the commonly used materials such as bismuth, cadmium, mercury, silver, etc. In fact the uranium in a typical 1 ton block of granite (concentration of about 5 ppm) is the energy equivalent (if used in the IFR) of 10 tons of coal! The abundance of uranium suggests that its price will likely not increase as a fuel material for the foreseeable future."
http://web.archive.org/web/20071009064447/www.nuc.berkeley.edu/designs/ifr/anlw.html
I will turn you back into a Commoner. I realized after rereading the Uranium section of your book, that you had acknowledged the virtually limitlessness nature of the uranium/thorium reserve.

Followers

Blog Archive

Some neat videos

Nuclear Advocacy Webring
Ring Owner: Nuclear is Our Future Site: Nuclear is Our Future
Free Site Ring from Bravenet Free Site Ring from Bravenet Free Site Ring from Bravenet Free Site Ring from Bravenet Free Site Ring from Bravenet
Get Your Free Web Ring
by Bravenet.com
Dr. Joe Bonometti speaking on thorium/LFTR technology at Georgia Tech David LeBlanc on LFTR/MSR technology Robert Hargraves on AIM High