Nuclear critique Amory Lovins denies that a nuclear renaissance is underway. The World Nuclear Association keeps track of actual and potential reactors world wide in order to determine future uranium demand. The list was created in 2007 and is updated every two months. A comparison of the January 29, 2007 list with the February 1, 2010 list demonstrates that a dramatic rise in the number of reactors under construction, planned, and proposed is under way. The number of reactors under construction has increased by 89% during the last three years, while the number of planned reactors has increased by 122%, and the number of reactors under consideration has increased by over 100%. This also suggests that a development process is moving forward, with reactors moving from proposal, into a planning stage and then into a construction stage. The 2010 list suggests that the United States is lagging behind world wide nuclear development. For example, the United States has 1reactor under construction, 11 planned, and 19 under consideration. in contrast China has 20 reactors under construction, 37 planned and 120 under consideration. India has 5 reactors under construction, 23 planned, and at least 15 more under consideration, and Russia has 9 reactors under construction, 8 planned, and 37 under consideration.
| Argentina | 6.4 | 6.9 | 2 | 935 | 1 | 692 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 700 | 135 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Armenia | 2.5 | 43 | 1 | 376 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1000 | 51 |
| Belgium | 45.3 | 56 | 7 | 5728 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1079 |
| Brazil | 9.9 | 2.5 | 2 | 1901 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1245 | 4 | 4000 | 338 |
| Bulgaria | 17.3 | 44 | 2 | 1906 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1900 | 0 | 0 | 255 |
| Canada* | 86.8 | 15 | 18 | 12595 | 2 | 1540 | 2 | 2000 | 0 | 0 | 1836 |
| China | 50.3 | 2.0 | 10 | 7587 | 5 | 4170 | 13 | 12920 | 50 | 35880 | 1454 |
| Czech Republic | 23.3 | 31 | 6 | 3472 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1900 | 550 |
| Egypt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 600 | 0 |
| Finland | 22.3 | 33 | 4 | 2696 | 1 | 1600 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 472 |
| France | 430.9 | 79 | 59 | 63473 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1630 | 1 | 1600 | 10368 |
| Germany | 154.6 | 31 | 17 | 20303 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3486 |
| Hungary | 13.0 | 37 | 4 | 1773 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 254 |
| India | 15.7 | 2.8 | 16 | 3577 | 7 | 3178 | 4 | 2800 | 15 | 11100 | 491 |
| Indonesia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4000 | 0 |
| Iran | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 915 | 2 | 1900 | 3 | 2850 | 143 |
| Israel | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1200 | 0 |
| Japan | 280.7 | 29 | 55 | 47700 | 2 | 2285 | 11 | 14945 | 1 | 1100 | 8872 |
| Kazakhstan | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 300 | 0 |
| Korea DPR (North) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 950 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Korea RO (South) | 139.3 | 45 | 20 | 17533 | 1 | 950 | 7 | 8250 | 0 | 0 | 3037 |
| Lithuania | 10.3 | 70 | 1 | 1185 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1000 | 134 |
| Mexico | 10.8 | 5.0 | 2 | 1310 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2000 | 257 |
| Netherlands | 3.8 | 3.9 | 1 | 485 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 112 |
| Pakistan | 1.9 | 2.8 | 2 | 400 | 1 | 300 | 2 | 600 | 2 | 2000 | 64 |
| Romania | 5.1 | 8.6 | 1 | 655 | 1 | 655 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1995 | 92 |
| Russia | 137.3 | 16 | 31 | 21743 | 3 | 2650 | 8 | 9600 | 18 | 21600 | 3777 |
| Slovakia | 16.3 | 56 | 5 | 2064 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 840 | 0 | 0 | 299 |
| Slovenia | 5.6 | 42 | 1 | 696 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1000 | 145 |
| South Africa | 12.2 | 5.5 | 2 | 1842 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 165 | 24 | 4000 | 332 |
| Spain | 54.7 | 20 | 8 | 7442 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1473 |
| Sweden | 69.5 | 45 | 10 | 8975 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1468 |
| Switzerland | 22.1 | 32 | 5 | 3220 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 575 |
| Turkey | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4500 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ukraine | 83.3 | 49 | 15 | 13168 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1900 | 0 | 0 | 2003 |
| United Kingdom | 75.2 | 20 | 19 | 10982 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2021 |
| USA | 780.5 | 19 | 103 | 98254 | 1 | 1200 | 2 | 2716 | 21 | 24000 | 20050 |
| Vietnam | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2000 | 0 |
| NUCLEAR ELECTRICITY GENERATION 2005 | REACTORS OPERABLE Jan 2007 | REACTORS under CONSTRUCTION Jan 2007 | REACTORS PLANNED Jan 2007 | REACTORS PROPOSED Jan 2007 | URANIUM REQUIRED 2007 | ||||||
| billion kWh | % e | No. | MWe | No. | MWe | No. | MWe | No. | MWe | tonnes U | |
| WORLD** | 2626 | 16 | 435 | 368,860 | 28 | 22,735 | 64 | 68,861 | 158 | 124,225 | 66,529 |
| billion kWh | % e | No. | MWe | No. | MWe | No. | MWe | No. | MWe | tonnes U | |
| NUCLEAR ELECTRICITY GENERATION 2005 | REACTORS OPERATING | REACTORS BUILDING | ON ORDER or PLANNED | PROPOSED | URANIUM REQUIRED | ||||||
1 February 2010
COUNTRY (Click name for | NUCLEAR ELECTRICITY GENERATION 2008 | REACTORS OPERABLE 1 Feb 2010 | REACTORS UNDER CONSTRUCTION 1 Feb 2010 | REACTORS PLANNED Feb 2010 | REACTORS PROPOSED Feb 2010 | URANIUM REQUIRED 2010 | |||||
billion kWh | % e | No. | MWe | No. | MWe | No. | MWe | No. | MWe | tonnes U | |
| Argentina | 6.8 | 6.2 | 2 | 935 | 1 | 692 | 2 | 767 | 1 | 740 | 123 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Armenia | 2.3 | 39.4 | 1 | 376 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1060 | 55 | ||
| Bangladesh | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2000 | 0 |
| Belarus | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2000 | 2 | 2000 | 0 |
| Belgium | 43.4 | 53.8 | 7 | 5728 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1052 |
| Brazil | 14.0 | 3.1 | 2 | 1901 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1245 | 4 | 4000 | 311 |
| Bulgaria | 14.7 | 32.9 | 2 | 1906 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1900 | 0 | 0 | 272 |
| Canada | 88.6 | 14.8 | 18 | 12652 | 2 | 1500 | 4 | 4400 | 3 | 3800 | 1675 |
| China | 65.3 | 2.2 | 11 | 8587 | 20 | 21880 | 37 | 41590 | 120 | 120000 | 2875 |
| Czech Republic | 25.0 | 32.5 | 6 | 3686 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3400 | 678 |
| Egypt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1000 | 1 | 1000 | 0 |
| Finland | 22.0 | 29.7 | 4 | 2696 | 1 | 1600 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1000 | 1149 |
| France | 418.3 | 76.2 | 58 | 63236 | 1 | 1630 | 1 | 1630 | 1 | 1630 | 10153 |
| Germany | 140.9 | 28.3 | 17 | 20339 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3453 |
| Hungary | 14.0 | 37.2 | 4 | 1880 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2000 | 295 |
| India | 13.2 | 2.0 | 18 | 3981 | 5 | 2774 | 23 | 21500 | 15 | 20000 | 908 |
| Indonesia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2000 | 4 | 4000 | 0 |
| Iran | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 915 | 2 | 1900 | 1 | 300 | 148 |
| Israel | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1200 | 0 |
| Italy | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 17000 | 0 |
| Japan | 240.5 | 24.9 | 54 | 47102 | 1 | 1373 | 13 | 17915 | 1 | 1300 | 8003 |
| Kazakhstan | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 600 | 2 | 600 | 0 |
| Korea DPR (North) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 950 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Korea RO (South) | 144.3 | 35.6 | 20 | 17716 | 6 | 6700 | 6 | 8190 | 0 | 0 | 3804 |
| Lithuania | 9.1 | 72.9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3400 | 0 |
| Mexico | 9.4 | 4.0 | 2 | 1310 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2000 | 253 |
| Netherlands | 3.9 | 3.8 | 1 | 485 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1000 | 107 |
| Pakistan | 1.7 | 1.9 | 2 | 400 | 1 | 300 | 2 | 600 | 2 | 2000 | 68 |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 6000 | 0 | |
| Romania | 7.1 | 17.5 | 2 | 1310 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1310 | 1 | 655 | 175 |
| Russia | 152.1 | 16.9 | 31 | 21821 | 9 | 7130 | 8 | 8000 | 37 | 36680 | 4135 |
| Slovakia | 15.5 | 56.4 | 4 | 1760 | 2 | 840 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1200 | 269 |
| Slovenia | 6.0 | 41.7 | 1 | 696 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1000 | 145 |
| South Africa | 12.7 | 5.3 | 2 | 1842 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3565 | 24 | 4000 | 321 |
| Spain | 56.4 | 18.3 | 8 | 7448 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1458 |
| Sweden | 61.3 | 42.0 | 10 | 9399 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1537 |
| Switzerland | 26.3 | 39.2 | 5 | 3252 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4000 | 557 |
| Thailand | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2000 | 4 | 4000 | 0 |
| Turkey | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2400 | 1 | 1200 | 0 |
| Ukraine | 84.3 | 47.4 | 15 | 13168 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1900 | 20 | 27000 | 2031 |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5600 | 10 | 14400 | 0 | |
| United Kingdom | 52.5 | 13.5 | 19 | 11035 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6600 | 6 | 9600 | 2235 |
| USA | 809.0 | 19.7 | 104 | 101119 | 1 | 1180 | 11 | 13800 | 19 | 25000 | 19538 |
| Vietnam | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2000 | 8 | 8000 | 0 |
WORLD** | 2601 | 15 | 436 | 372,693 | 53 | 51,114 | 142 | 156,422 | 327 | 343,000 | 68,646 |
billion kWh | % e | No. | MWe | No. | MWe | No. | MWe | No. | MWe | tonnes U | |
NUCLEAR ELECTRICITY GENERATION 2008 | REACTORS OPERATING | REACTORS BUILDING | ON ORDER or PLANNED | PROPOSED | URANIUM REQUIRED | ||||||
It should be noted that while only one reactor was added to the world reactor fleet in the last three years, the number of reactors under construction rose from 28 to 53, the number of Reactors planned rose from 64 to 142, and the number of reactors under consideration rose from 158 to 327.
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5 comments:
Amory Lovins denies that a nuclear renaissance is underway, eh? Well that's all the evidence I need, that one is!
The facts plainly show that Lovins has been consistently wrong about the ability of renewables to take large amounts of market-share from fossil fuels. He’s been proven wrong about the long-term ability of efficiency to reduce overall energy consumption.
And yet, despite being so wrong, so often and for so long, the smoke keeps rising in front of Lovins' altar unabated. Inexplicably Lovins retains his guru status no matter how wrong he is.
Charles
It seems that Tyler Hamilton of Clean Break also believes that no nuclear renaissance is underway.
http://www.cleanbreak.ca/2010/02/05/nuclear-power-renaissance-not-the-expansion-boom-the-industry-expected/
Hamilton is columnist for the Toronto Star, and Green is the flavor of the day at the Star, the paper being more to the Left than the Nat. Post and the Globe.
His opinions don't amount to anything really in the energy debate, to the extent that he holds any strong ones at all. He tends to reflect the wishy-washy worldview of Toronto's SUV driving, Liberal-voting, suburbanites who are his audience.
The item liked to by RobW, is a masterpiece noncommittal writing, that arms his readership with handy sound-bites that they can offer up in any energy related conversation regardless of the direction it is going in and sound like they could be agreeing with everyone.
(can you tell I'm from Montreal?)
Hi Charles, thanks for your references. The graph at the end of your article (showing uranium abundances on a log scale) is actually one that I am familiar with - I cited it in my book! (It's in the Sci Am article.) I tried to get the most up-to-date information I could on uranium and thorium geology by asking, among others, the World Nuclear Association for their estimates and references. My book's estimates about Uranium do include the phosphates that feature in your essay. It would be helpful if you could give a source for your assertion that a breeder reactor would deliver 162 times more electricity from uranium than a once-through reactor. I am very happy to be given corrections, but I don't like just being told I am "wrong" without being given a reference! Oh, and by the way, I am not "Sir David MacKay", I am just "David MacKay".
David, From An Introduction to Argonne National Laboratory's INTEGRAL FAST REACTOR (IFR) PROGRAM, " The IFR, with its fuel reprocessing capability, can use all the uranium. There is enough uranium that has been mined and placed in barrels (uranium 238) for IFR-type plants to provide all the electricity for the United States for over 500 years -- without mining. Also, the IFR can likely reprocess the spent fuel from today's reactors, and use the recovered materials for fuel. Uranium is as abundant in the earth as many of the commonly used materials such as bismuth, cadmium, mercury, silver, etc. In fact the uranium in a typical 1 ton block of granite (concentration of about 5 ppm) is the energy equivalent (if used in the IFR) of 10 tons of coal! The abundance of uranium suggests that its price will likely not increase as a fuel material for the foreseeable future."
http://web.archive.org/web/20071009064447/www.nuc.berkeley.edu/designs/ifr/anlw.html
I will turn you back into a Commoner. I realized after rereading the Uranium section of your book, that you had acknowledged the virtually limitlessness nature of the uranium/thorium reserve.
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